October 04, 2016
Don't Shoot Iran's Naval Provocateurs
America has learned how to defuse these situations.
In recent weeks, Iranian ships have harassed a number of American vessels in the crowded waters of the Persian Gulf. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has responded that if such actions continued under his presidency, Iranian ships would be “shot out of the water.”
Such an approach would send a strong signal, but would also likely turn a minor incident into a significant international crisis, causing oil prices to skyrocket and potentially embroiling America in another major conflict in the Middle East. Fortunately, the United States has a number of options at its disposal that do not come with this type of risk, and that have proven in the past to be effective in deterring provocative Iranian behavior.
From a defensive standpoint, threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s most effective form of conventional deterrence against conventional attacks. Closing the passageway through which 20 percent of the world’s oil production flows is the closest thing Iran has to a nuclear option. Just like the use of nuclear weapons, actually closing the strait would be suicidal for Iran’s navy, leading to an American-led international military response while also doing grave damage to Iran’s ability to export oil through the strait. But reminding its competitors, including Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States, that it has the capacity to set off a world economic crisis if attacked is useful to Iran.
Read the full article in The National Interest.
More from CNAS
-
How a Peace Deal Between Hamas and Israel Will Reshape the Middle East
Rachel Brandenberg joins NPR to discuss how the region will change if Israel and Hamas continue to abide by the peace deal President Trump brokered. Listen to the interview o...
By Rachel Brandenburg
-
Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan Skips Step One
The White House proposal attempts to solve too many distinct issues all at once, without enough input from Palestinians....
By Delaney Soliday
-
Analyzing Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan for Israel and Gaza
President Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are urging Hamas to accept the latest U.S. peace plan to end the war in Gaza. Trump says if Hamas rejects the 20...
By Rachel Brandenburg
-
Fourth Time’s a Charm? How Trump Could Push Netanyahu into Ending the Gaza War
Trump's new Gaza plan has a weak point: It clashes with Netanyahu's promises to his voters....
By Rachel Brandenburg