October 04, 2016
Don't Shoot Iran's Naval Provocateurs
America has learned how to defuse these situations.
In recent weeks, Iranian ships have harassed a number of American vessels in the crowded waters of the Persian Gulf. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has responded that if such actions continued under his presidency, Iranian ships would be “shot out of the water.”
Such an approach would send a strong signal, but would also likely turn a minor incident into a significant international crisis, causing oil prices to skyrocket and potentially embroiling America in another major conflict in the Middle East. Fortunately, the United States has a number of options at its disposal that do not come with this type of risk, and that have proven in the past to be effective in deterring provocative Iranian behavior.
From a defensive standpoint, threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s most effective form of conventional deterrence against conventional attacks. Closing the passageway through which 20 percent of the world’s oil production flows is the closest thing Iran has to a nuclear option. Just like the use of nuclear weapons, actually closing the strait would be suicidal for Iran’s navy, leading to an American-led international military response while also doing grave damage to Iran’s ability to export oil through the strait. But reminding its competitors, including Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States, that it has the capacity to set off a world economic crisis if attacked is useful to Iran.
Read the full article in The National Interest.
More from CNAS
-
Iran Deal Return Increasingly Uncertain
Podcast
Elisa Catalano Ewers joins The Warcast to discuss the series of strikes exchanged in Iraq and Syria and their diplomatic ramifications. Listen to the full episode from The Wa...
By Elisa Catalano Ewers
-
Biden Can Keep the Two-State Solution Alive
Commentary
Small details matter a great deal—and they have the potential to become big international headaches....
By Ilan Goldenberg
-
A People-First U.S. Assistance Strategy for the Middle East
Reports
Executive Summary For the past year, the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has been developing a strategy for rethinking U.S. polic...
By Ilan Goldenberg, Daphne McCurdy, Kaleigh Thomas & Sydney Scarlata
-
Can Gaza be rehabilitated without aiding Hamas?
Video
The bombs may have stopped falling on Gaza and the rocket fire from there has ceased for now, but Gazans face a huge task of rebuilding. Ilan Goldenberg, director of the Middl...
By Ilan Goldenberg
