October 04, 2016
Don't Shoot Iran's Naval Provocateurs
America has learned how to defuse these situations.
In recent weeks, Iranian ships have harassed a number of American vessels in the crowded waters of the Persian Gulf. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has responded that if such actions continued under his presidency, Iranian ships would be “shot out of the water.”
Such an approach would send a strong signal, but would also likely turn a minor incident into a significant international crisis, causing oil prices to skyrocket and potentially embroiling America in another major conflict in the Middle East. Fortunately, the United States has a number of options at its disposal that do not come with this type of risk, and that have proven in the past to be effective in deterring provocative Iranian behavior.
From a defensive standpoint, threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s most effective form of conventional deterrence against conventional attacks. Closing the passageway through which 20 percent of the world’s oil production flows is the closest thing Iran has to a nuclear option. Just like the use of nuclear weapons, actually closing the strait would be suicidal for Iran’s navy, leading to an American-led international military response while also doing grave damage to Iran’s ability to export oil through the strait. But reminding its competitors, including Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States, that it has the capacity to set off a world economic crisis if attacked is useful to Iran.
Read the full article in The National Interest.
More from CNAS
-
Ziemba: U.S. Has To Be Ready To Accept Mideast Investments
US President Donald Trump has secured $200 billion in deals during a visit to the United Arab Emirates, according to the White House, as he wraps up his visit to the Middle Ea...
By Rachel Ziemba
-
Trump Inks $600 Bn Deal In Saudi Arabia | Musk, Blackrock CEO Flank Trump In Gulf Visit
In today's episode of India Global, U.S. President Donald Trump secured a $600 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to invest in the United States. NDTV's Gaurie Dw...
By Daniel Silverberg
-
Iraq and Türkiye Ink Defence Deals As They Vow To Pressure Israel on Gaza
From humanitarian co-operation in Gaza to stabilising northern Syria and managing shared water resources, both nations are expanding their regional footprint. Then there's the...
By Hamzeh Hadad
-
U.S. Airstrikes Alone Can’t Dislodge the Houthis
But any resolution to the Houthis, as tangled as they are in wider regional and global problems, needs a local solution....
By Eitan Danon