June 18, 2020
How to Prevent a War in Asia
Amid all the uncertainty about the world that will follow the pandemic, one thing is almost sure to be true: tensions between the United States and China will be even sharper than they were before the coronavirus outbreak. The resurgence of U.S.-Chinese competition poses a host of challenges for policymakers—related to trade and economics, technology, global influence, and more—but none is more consequential than reducing the risk of war. Unfortunately, thanks to today’s uniquely dangerous mix of growing Chinese assertiveness and military strength and eroding U.S. deterrence, that risk is higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.
Neither Washington nor Beijing seeks a military conflict with the other. Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump both undoubtedly understand that a war would be disastrous. Yet the United States and China could all too easily stumble into conflict, sparked by a Chinese miscalculation of the United States’ willingness or capability to respond to provocations in disputed areas such as the South China Sea or to outright aggression against Taiwan or another U.S. security partner in the region.
Read the full article in Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security / Technology & National Security
Selling AI Chips Won’t Keep China Hooked on U.S. TechnologyU.S. policy should not rest on the illusion that selling chips can trap China inside the American tech ecosystem....
By Janet Egan
-
Will New Delhi-Beijing Move Beyond Friction Points? | Ex-White Official On India-China Reset
Video
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said that India and China, as two major economies, must work together to bring stability to the global economic order. NDTV's Gaurie Dwi...
By Lisa Curtis
-
How Big Will China’s Nuclear Arsenal Get?
Commentary
China’s nuclear expansion is already feeding an arms race—a contest that is accelerating partly because the finish line remains unknown....
By Jacob Stokes
-
China Military Scholar Elsa Kania on the PLA’s Dramatic Modernisation
Podcast
Today we speak with Elsa B. Kania, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, about China’s military modernisation. How good is the People’s Liberation A...
By Elsa B. Kania
