December 13, 2024

Our Man in Damascus? Sanctions and Governance in Post-Assad Syria

By: Alex Zerden

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria promises to present policymakers with a dizzying array of legal and policy challenges in the weeks ahead. Foremost among them is how to reconcile the need to engage with post-Assad Syria with the dense thicket of international and U.S. sanctions that currently apply to it—an issue further complicated by the fact that the group that now appears to be in charge of Damascus and other key parts of western Syria, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (“HTS”), is itself a heavily sanctioned terrorist organization.

To date, external discussions have mostly focused on HTS’s designation as a terrorist organization and whether that status warrants reconsideration in light of the group’s expanded governing role and recent efforts by its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, to pivot towards more moderate public messaging. But these discussions often miss the forest for the trees. HTS’s status as a terrorist organization is not necessarily the main sanctions barrier to engaging with populations and territory under its control. Nor do the sanctions-related problems facing post-Assad Syria end with the status of the organization now in control of its capital. Rather, a complex web of sanctions, export controls, and other comprehensive legal and economic measures blankets the country, presenting an array of serious legal and policy impediments to engagement with post-Assad Syria if left unaddressed.

The complexity of the legal and policy issues presented by the sanctions thicket surrounding Syria—and the disparate authorities responsible for various parts of it—will require a focused, unified strategy with buy-in from the highest levels of the executive branch.

In this piece, we provide an overview of some of these sanctions challenges. After a deep dive into the most immediate questions regarding HTS’s status as a terrorist organization, we then lay out the landscape of additional sanctions challenges looming on the horizon. Finally, we end with a few recommendations for how policymakers may best approach these issues.

HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

No one knows who will eventually succeed the Assad regime as the government of Syria. But by virtue of its central role in the rebel coalition that ultimately ousted the prior regime, HTS seems almost certain to have a prominent seat at the table. The Salvation Government that has emerged as the de facto authority in parts of western Syria now held by the rebel coalition is headed by interim Prime Minister Mohammad al-Bashir, who previously led the de facto regime in those parts of Idlib province and Aleppo previously under HTS’s control. HTS is likely to have a similarly influential hand in whatever arrangements follow that regime if and when it resigns in March as it has promised.

Read the full article in Lawfare.

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