March 23, 2023
Putin’s Forever War
More than a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a grim reality has settled in: the war will not end soon. Despite the heavy fighting in and around the eastern city of Bakhmut and other parts of the Donbas, the frontlines have not substantively changed in months. Russia’s much-anticipated offensive appears to be underway, but Moscow lacks the capabilities to make any significant gains. Ukraine, too, is preparing for a springtime offensive, but the country’s human and material losses could limit its success. And neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears interested in negotiations. Given the apparent impasse, the question becomes how long will the two leaders opt to fight.
Fighting on makes sense for Putin for one fundamental reason: wartime autocrats rarely lose power.
The reason that Zelensky and his country keep fighting is clear: if they do not, Ukraine as it is will cease to exist. That sentiment has been repeatedly articulated by Western leaders. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken put it in stark terms in September, stating, “If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.” Even if Zelensky pursued a negotiated settlement that ceded territory to Russia, it would carry the risk that Moscow, having learned that might makes right, could attack again in the future. Zelensky faces what political scientists call a “credible commitment” problem: he cannot be confident that Putin will not merely agree to a settlement today but then simply regroup and attack again tomorrow. By agreeing to a settled peace now, Ukraine could find itself in a worse position later.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Defense / Transatlantic Security
Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter RussiaToday’s European leaders are in a Singapore trap, crafting a training mission designed to signal resolve rather than achieve an actual military objective....
By Franz-Stefan Gady
-
The Wrong Way to Do Diplomacy With Russia
In fact, the summit helped Putin legitimize Moscow’s grievances, giving Russians who might doubt the wisdom of the invasion reason believe that it was, as Putin promised, just...
By Celeste Wallander
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security
A Project for a New World OrderIndeed, the gathering in Beijing suggests that the axis, rather than withering following the war in Iran in June, has momentum....
By Richard Fontaine & Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security
Leaders of N. Korea, China and Russia Show Rare Unity at China’s Victory DayIt's the first time in over six decades that a North Korean leader has attended a Chinese parade, underscoring the moment's symbolism. Kim was seen alongside Chinese President...
By Dr. Go Myong-Hyun