June 04, 2025

Putin’s Pressure Point

By: Edward Fishman

A new U.S. president enters office vowing to reach out a hand to a bitter enemy. He pledges to resolve a long-burning crisis through diplomacy, despite widespread skepticism that it’s possible. When his early efforts stall, Congress—including members of the president’s own party—loses patience and advances sweeping sanctions to break the impasse. European allies also grow frustrated and impose new penalties.

This is the story of the opening months of Donald Trump’s second term on Russia. After refusing to accept a cease-fire and intensifying attacks on Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has shown that he’s not interested in peace. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, has secured over 80 votes for a bill to impose “bone-crushing sanctions” on Russia—enough for a veto-proof majority. The EU is preparing new sanctions, too.

Trump’s handling of Russia diverges sharply from his approach to every other country.

But it’s also the story of the opening year of Barack Obama’s presidency on Iran. During George W. Bush’s second term, the United States steadily escalated sanctions on Iran. When Obama entered office, he pivoted to diplomacy, proposing an arrangement in which Tehran would part with its stockpile of enriched uranium in exchange for nuclear fuel. In late 2009, however, Iran rejected the proposal. Congress responded with wave after wave of sanctions, culminating in measures that devastated Iran’s oil revenues. European countries also stepped up and imposed an oil embargo. The combined pressure drove Iran’s economy into freefall, creating the conditions that ultimately brought Iran to the negotiating table.

With Trump’s Russia policy at a dead end, his administration would do well to learn from Obama’s Iran experience. A particularly important lesson is that congressional initiative—while almost always unwelcome by the executive branch—can be an essential ingredient to a successful economic pressure strategy. If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, his administration should work with Graham and other hawks on Capitol Hill rather than oppose them.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

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