September 26, 2022
Russia, Iran, and the Perils of Post-autocracy
Sometimes a news cycle constitutes more than just noise. It provides a loud, uncanny signal about what may lie beyond the horizon. That happened this month, when a more hopeful, dangerous, and radically different geopolitics came into view. Within literally a few days of each other, we have witnessed the near-collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine and the humiliation of a regime in the streets of Iranian cities.
Neither the Russian nor the Iranian regime is now specifically threatened. Each could hang on for years. But this month provided a glimpse of their eventual demise.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s soldiers revealed themselves to be little more than a mob on the move, having tortured and mistreated the civilians under their control, they abruptly abandoned their positions and literally ran away from advancing Ukrainian forces. Putin’s fascist-trending national security state may be turning to ashes. His threat of nuclear war only reveals that autocratic regimes are at their most dangerous in the years before they expire.
As for Iran, the regime’s disrepute among its own subjects has been on full display, with massive protests engulfing dozens of cities and crowds demanding the end of the Islamic Republic. The rage, spread by social media, was ignited by the death at the hands of the so-called morality police of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini, who had been detained for not properly wearing her hijab. But the fuel was decades of repression and corruption, and a ruined economy.
Read the full article from Project Syndicate.
More from CNAS
-
Ex-NATO Official: Putin Is ‘Stringing Along Trump’ to Push for Sanctions Relief
Jim Townsend, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, weighs in on peace talks after the Putin-Zelenskyy-Trump call and whether the U.S. is failing...
By Jim Townsend
-
What Ukraine and Russia are Negotiating in Turkey
Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul this week – the first since March 2022 – have got off to a shaky start. Putin’s no-show meant President Zelenskyy remained ...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Putin Desperate to Maintain Fractured Relationship with Trump | Jim Townsend
Trump could push Putin further to "get on board" with a 30 day ceasefire as Russia grow more keen grow a relationship with the US, says Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for...
By Jim Townsend
-
Ukraine Negotiates for Its Future
There’s been a flurry of activity on the Ukraine front this week. Over the weekend, Donald Trump briefly met with Zelensky in Rome during ceremonies for Pope Francis’ funeral....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend