July 01, 2023
The China ‘End State’ Question
What should be the goal—the “end state”—of U.S. policy toward China? The question is darkly shadowed by the past, when for some 25 years, U.S. policymakers widely agreed on a goal that was clear, compelling, and egregiously wrong.
Some called it “convergence.” The Germans called it “Wandel durch Handel,” for “change through trade.” The journalist James Mann brilliantly identified it in 2007 as the “Soothing Scenario.” It was the belief that diplomacy and especially trade with China would liberalize its politics and spur its transformation into a “responsible stakeholder” in a U.S.-led liberal international order.
We will have succeeded when Beijing can no longer confidently or credibly pursue global primacy.
Those ideas served us terribly. Given this experience, we should approach with modesty the task of articulating new goals now for our China policy.
About Us, Not Them
In my view, the appropriate end state for U.S. policy captures not the condition of China’s politics but of America’s interests, as reflected in our security, freedoms, and prosperity.
Read the full article at Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute.
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