June 04, 2018
The Pro-Assad Alliance Is Coming Apart
In a May 21 speech on U.S. strategy following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo struck a tough tone, promising to confront Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its multinational Shiite militia networks throughout the Middle East. But strong words have yet to be matched with action. For years, the United States has struggled to come up with a strategy for containing and eventually rolling back Iranian influence in Syria, the most hotly contested battlefield in the Middle East.
That may be about to change, thanks to an emerging fracture in the alliance backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. On one side of the divide is Iran, which seeks to consolidate its gains in Syria in order to apply military pressure on Israel. On the other side are the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and Russia, all of which fear a major conflict with Israel that could undermine what they have fought for in the Levant over the past decade. These divisions may finally provide Washington with the opportunity it has been seeking to check Tehran’s ambitions in Syria.
COMING APART
Assad’s position today is as strong as it has been since 2012, when Syria’s armed opposition first started gaining momentum. Over the past two years, the regime and its allies have made significant territorial gains, especially in the strategic areas in and around the capital of Damascus and in the last pocket of rebel rule in Homs Province. Assad’s opponents lack either the will or the capability to stop him from slowly winning the war.
Read the Full Article at Foreign Affairs
More from CNAS
-
A People-First U.S. Assistance Strategy for the Middle East
Reports
Executive Summary For the past year, the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has been developing a strategy for rethinking U.S. polic...
By Ilan Goldenberg, Daphne McCurdy, Kaleigh Thomas & Sydney Scarlata
-
Can Gaza be rehabilitated without aiding Hamas?
Video
The bombs may have stopped falling on Gaza and the rocket fire from there has ceased for now, but Gazans face a huge task of rebuilding. Ilan Goldenberg, director of the Middl...
By Ilan Goldenberg
-
Sharper: Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy
Commentary
In recent days, Israel and Palestine have been overcome by the worst violence since the 2014 Gaza war. This flare-up poses the first real test to the Biden administration’s fo...
By Anna Pederson, Dania Torres & Kaleigh Thomas
-
Israeli-Palestinian conflict tests Biden team
Podcast
Pressure is building for President Joe Biden to do more to try to halt Israel’s assault on Gaza. Ilan Goldenberg, former chief of staff to the US special envoy for Israeli-Pal...
By Ilan Goldenberg
