June 01, 2023
The Unintended Consequences of Economic Sanctions
Economic sanctions are being used more and more often but also face more questions of effectiveness, especially as they are used on larger and larger targets. The recent anniversary of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted considerable analysis of the effectiveness of economic sanctions. In the Russia case, sanctions are clearly having an economic impact, reducing Russia’s economic and policy choices, resulting in a smaller but more centralized economy that is increasingly reliant on a smaller number of trading partners. However, there are no signs that the war is coming to an end. The Russian sanctions highlight two linked trends—the economic impacts of sanctions may build over time, impairing future investment and growth, while at the same time workarounds develop, creating resiliency. To maintain similar levels of pressure, new sanctions are required, often creating a whack-a-mole situation.
Since 2022, the risks of splintering among developed economies seem to have receded, at least temporarily and with respect to Russia.
While sanctions clearly bring economic stress and political impacts, including potential consolidations of power within the target governments, there is less evidence about their ability to bring behavioral change, as even policymakers like Janet Yellen seem recently to have pondered. Policymakers in the U.S. have begun to shift away from a prior assessment that sanctions are meant to prompt policy change, and more applications seem designed to degrade and limit the access of malign actors to the global economy. Russia is a case in point.
Read the full article from Lawfare.
More from CNAS
-
Rational Security: The “Adverse Possession” Edition
Podcast
This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Contributing Editor and CNAS adjunct senior fellow Alex Zerden to talk through a few of the week’s big...
By Alex Zerden
-
What if 'America First' Appears to Work? With Tom Wright
Podcast
Tom Wright joins to talk about his recent article, “What if 'America First' Appears to Work?" about the Trump administration’s “might makes right” approach to foreign policy, ...
By Emily Kilcrease & Geoffrey Gertz
-
Economic Security in North America
Reports
Executive Summary The United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated during President Donald Trump’s first term includes a novel review clause. By July 2026, t...
By Emily Kilcrease & Geoffrey Gertz
-
Hearing on the Operation of the Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada
Congressional Testimony
Thank you for the opportunity to provide testimony today. My remarks will focus on the role that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) plays in advancing America’s strategi...
By Emily Kilcrease
