January 07, 2022
What It Will Take to Deter Russia
Nearly eight years after Russia invaded Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea, triggering a raft of international sanctions, the United States and its allies find themselves again trying to figure out how to deter Moscow from menacing Ukraine—if not launching a full-scale invasion—in hopes of gaining new Western concessions. Talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have begun in earnest, with Putin putting forth maximalist demands that could become either the starting point for protracted negotiations that meet somewhere in the middle or, if left unmet, the pretext for a major escalation in the ongoing conflict.
Economic sanctions alone, no matter how personally painful they may be to Putin and his cronies, will not be enough
U.S. and European leaders have warned Putin publicly and privately that should he again launch military forces into Ukraine, they will not hesitate to expand sanctions against Russia. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reported that during a two-hour videoconference with Putin on December 7, Biden warned the Russian leader that “things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now.” Biden’s threat to his Russian interlocutors left little room for misunderstanding.
Yet economic sanctions alone, no matter how personally painful they may be to Putin and his cronies, will not be enough to prevent the Kremlin from using tactics that have proved effective in the past.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Podcast
Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security
The Russia-Iran Partnership: A Geopolitical Balancing ActIt has been almost a year since Russia and Iran signed their comprehensive strategic partnership. That deal established a 20-year partnership between the two countries coverin...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Commentary
Defense / Transatlantic Security
Ukraine’s Catch-22 MomentThis article was originally published in the Financial Times. In Joseph Heller’s wartime classic, Catch-22, the protagonist Yossarian seeks out the US army surgeon Doc Daneeka...
By Franz-Stefan Gady
-
Commentary
Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security / Energy, Economics & Security
Sanctions Aren’t Enough to Shut Down the Moscow-Tehran Black Market for WarThe geographic scope and extent of Iranian-Russian cooperation highlights the failure of traditional sanctions to prevent Moscow and Tehran from seeking key components like ch...
By Delaney Soliday
-
What’s Driving President Trump’s New Confidence in Ukraine’s War Effort
Podcast
President Trump dramatically declared on social media that he now believes that Ukraine can reclaim all its land from Russia, which he described as a paper tiger. From the Ova...
By Richard Fontaine
