December 29, 2021
What Putin Learned From the Soviet Collapse
When the Soviet Union dissolved 30 years ago this month, on December 25, 1991, its end followed decades of economic dysfunction. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, hoping to implement reforms, referred to the 1970s and 1980s as zastoi, the era of stagnation. Yet though he recognized the problem, Gorbachev couldn’t save the ailing socialist system. Indeed, his failed attempt at systematic reform ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s collapse.
On the surface, Russia’s economy appears similarly dysfunctional today. Per capita incomes have not improved over the past decade. Russia’s share of global output has declined since 2008. And large sectors of the economy remain technologically backward or in desperate need of modernization. The general economic state could once again be described as “stagnation.”
Just as Communist Party leaders in Beijing have studied Soviet history in an effort to avert its repetition, so have leaders in the Kremlin.
Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government are unlikely to suffer the same fate as their Soviet forebears.
They have learned the lessons of failed Soviet attempts to reverse decline in the 1970s and 1980s, and many key attributes of the Russian economy and Russian economic policy reflect a desire to avoid repeating the Soviet experience under Gorbachev. As the Russian economist Sergei Guriev recently remarked, “Russia’s macroeconomic policy is much more conservative, inflation is under control, there are large reserves, a balanced budget and no external debt,” and as a market economy Russia is “much more efficient and resilient” than the Soviet Union.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Drones over Poland with Doug Lute and Kurt Volker
Podcast
In the early hours of September 10th, Polish authorities detected 19 Russian drones over Polish airspace. This incident represents a major escalation, with Poland triggering A...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
‘The U.S. Has Got to Get Involved’: Townsend on NATO Boosting Polish Air Defences
Video
Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, discusses what actions NATO countries need to take amidst Russia’s incursions of NATO airspace.W...
By Jim Townsend
-
Commentary
Defense / Transatlantic Security
Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter RussiaToday’s European leaders are in a Singapore trap, crafting a training mission designed to signal resolve rather than achieve an actual military objective....
By Franz-Stefan Gady
-
Melting Arctic Ice is a National Security Threat
Commentary
China’s footprint in the Arctic is already growing, and the development of civil-military capabilities in some of its established polar research stations could provide the fou...
By Kate Johnston & Maeve Drury
