July 24, 2018
Will China Undermine Trump's Iran Strategy?
Tehran Is Hedging Against International Isolation
In May, President Donald Trump announced that he was pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal. A few weeks later, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo outlined the administration’s aggressive new Iran policy, which was designed to prevent the country’s emergence from isolation. This strategy, the Trump administration believes, will force Iran to return to the table and make a “bigger and better” deal that addresses the president’s concerns with the existing agreement. For Tehran, a full economic recovery and renewed ties with Western countries now seem unlikely. But this doesn’t mean that the Trump administration’s plans will succeed.
For the better part of two decades, Iran’s leadership has been hedging against international isolation by developing deeper ties with China and Russia. Today, as Washington once again seeks to tighten the screws, Tehran sees its relationship with Beijing as key to remaining afloat. China has announced it will likely continue importing oil from Iran, even after the United States moves to cut down Iranian oil sales down to zero by November. And Chinese engagement with Iran might pave the ground for others to follow suit, which would undermine the new U.S. pressure campaign.
LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIP
Chinese officials often characterize their relationship with Iran as “20 centuries of cooperation,” but the two countries’ contemporary partnership began in the final days of monarchical rule in Iran. In August 1978, the chair of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Hua Guofeng, traveled to Iran—the first time that a Chinese communist leader visited a non-communist country.
Read the Full Article at Foreign Affairs
More from CNAS
-
Legacies of Repression in Egypt and Tunisia: Authoritarianism, Political Mobilization, and Founding Elections
About the Book: When an authoritarian regime collapses, what determines whether an opposition group will form a political party, be successful in mobilizing voters, and surviv...
By Alanna C. Torres-Van Antwerp
-
A New Nuclear Deal With Iran Shouldn’t Be Accompanied By Terrorist Legitimization
Commentary
Removing the label of terrorism should take effort on behalf of the offending party, something the Islamic Republic is unwilling to provide....
By John O'Malley
-
Aligning U.S.-Israeli Cooperation on Technology Issues and China
Reports
The United States and Israel have a long history of working together as close allies. Theirs is a relationship based on common values and security interests. In recent years, ...
By Jonathan Schanzer, Shira Efron, Martijn Rasser & Alice Hickson
-
Protecting The Hazara People Of Afghanistan Is A Moral Obligation The World Is Failing To Meet
Commentary
Once the largest of Afghanistan’s ethnic groups, Hazaras now make uponly 9 percent of Afghanistan’s population of 36 million, and Genocide Watch has declared this a “genocide ...
By Alice Hickson
