October 02, 2018

As oil prices rise, US locks in on Iran sanctions

Featuring Elizabeth Rosenberg

Source: Platts

Journalist Brian Scheid

Rising global oil prices will not deter the Trump administration from pushing sanctions forward on Iranian crude exports in November, several analysts told S&P Global Platts Tuesday.

And, rather than developing a contingency plan which may delay or phase in Iranian sanctions, the administration appears emboldened by the current price environment, these analysts said.

"I just don't see them wavering right now," said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Council on Foreign Relations.

After closing at their highest levels since 2014 on Monday, ICE December Brent settled at $84.80 Tuesday, down 18 cents/b from Monday and NYMEX November WTI settled at $75.23/b Tuesday, down 7 cents/b from Monday.

Trump administration officials are confident they can get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to boost supply in coming weeks and an expected increase in US shale oil production will also further dull the impact of Iranian sanctions, set for reimposition on November 5, Myers Jaffe said.

US oil production is expect to climb roughly 500,000 b/d by the end of the year, from about 10.7 million in September to about 11.2 million b/d in December, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Read the full article and more at S&P Global/Platts.

  • Elizabeth Rosenberg

    Senior Fellow and Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program

    Elizabeth Rosenberg is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. In this capacity, she publishes a...