China-Taiwan Frictions Flare After Deaths of Fishermen

The latest maritime incidents fit a pattern of China “responding to events that Beijing views as provocations by escalating the situation in its response and using those opportunities to further undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty,” said Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank focused on security issues.

“By hitting back in ways that raise the temperature, China can make progress on its long-term goals while also exacting a price along the way,” said Stokes, who served on then-Vice President Biden’s national-security staff.

Stokes said the latest incidents raise the possibility that Beijing could move to seize one of Taiwan’s outlying islands, which in addition to Kinmen includes other small islands close to the mainland coast.

“Such an outer island seizure scenario is just as likely, perhaps even more so, than a full blockade of Taiwan’s main island, mostly because of the operational advantages China would have in such a situation just due to proximity,” he said.

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