Despite the Chinese efforts at unpredictability, the sheer scale of mobilization necessary to invade Taiwan means a sneak attack would be very difficult without American intelligence catching wind of Chinese plans.
But Beijing can hope to numb Taiwan and get a jump-start on the United States by constantly practicing ever more realistic invasion scenarios.
“These drills keep getting bigger and bigger,” said Tom Shugart, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “As the number and frequency continues to grow, it naturally becomes that much harder to know whether next time is the real thing.”
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