Iraq’s leader wants US troops out, but there’s no timeline in place

A discussion of future troop presence is due to take place at some point in the form of a “higher review commission,” announced in August at the conclusion of the U.S.-Iraq Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue in Washington, D.C.

But no one should expect those negotiations to move quickly, Jonathan Lord, the director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security, told Military Times on Friday.

“There’s an old trope that we Iraq analyst hands have, you know: When an Iraqi politician wants to be seen doing something on a difficult issue without actually doing anything? Yeah, they suggest we form a committee,” Lord said.

In fact, Sudani defended the U.S.’s presence in a different Wall Street Journal interview exactly a year ago.

Sudani is under pressure from Iran-aligned members of his government who want the U.S. out, Lord said, the same forces funding and equipping the militias who keep sending drones and rockets toward bases with U.S. troops.

“When I see statements like that, when I see rhetoric like that, it indicates to me that Sudani is not particularly interested in making strong policy moves, but rather appearing to be concerned and to be taking strong policy moves without actually having to change anything at all, at least, you know, in the near term,” Lord added.

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“Sudani, in fact, does have a political point here, that the relationship between the U.S. military and the Iraqi military should have already evolved beyond a specific objective of the defeat of ISIS, to focus on building an Iraqi military that can stand on its own two feet, and very little of U.S. policy bandwidth or resources has actually been spent to that effect,” Lord said.

If the U.S. does withdraw further from Iraq, the question becomes how to continue operating in Syria without the logistical support provided by an Operation Inherent Resolve node in Iraq.

“You need a ground line of communication to supply those forces in Syria, right? And the Turks never let us do it,” Lord said.

Unless someone comes up with a “harebrained scheme to try to like, air lift support,” he added, there’s no geographical path to northeast Syria from the next closest U.S. base, Camp Arifjan, Kuwait.

In the end, a possible “bilateral agreement” in Iraq could shrink down the U.S. presence to just what’s needed to keep the anti-ISIS mission going in Syria, and maybe a small cohort committed to the ongoing training of Iraqi troops.

“[Sudani], just like every prime minister before him, is on this balance beam of trying to find a middle path by which they can build and benefit from the U.S. relationship and everything that comes with it, including all of the perceived security and the capital investment that potentially unlocks access to U.S. dollars, while also then trying to navigate around what is essentially a deeply entrenched political mafia that has guns,” Lord said.

Read the full story and more from Military Times.