Will the U.S. Abandon Ukraine?

For all its recent gains in Avdiivka, the Russian military is also an exhausted force—and one that is losing more tanks, howitzers and other military equipment to Ukrainian forces than it’s able to produce or refurbish. Attrition currently works in Ukraine’s favor, even though that favorable ratio is gradually declining because of ammunition rationing, said Franz-Stefan Gady, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security who has frequently traveled to Ukrainian front lines. Over time, that attrition phase should allow Ukrainian forces to resume offensive operations if Western aid continues, he said.

“The Russian army is not unbeatable,” Gady said. “But there is a gradual realization in Europe that this could go south, and that if it does go south, it’s really going to have tremendous consequences for the entire security architecture of the continent.”

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