New CNAS Report: “‘Production Is Deterrence:’ Investing in Precision-Guided Weapons to Meet Peer Challengers”

Washington, June 28, 2023 — Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, “‘Production Is Deterrence:’ Investing in Precision-Guided Weapons to Meet Peer Challengers,” by authors Stacie Pettyjohn, Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense Program, and Hannah Dennis, Research Associate in the Defense Program.

The authors evaluate how the FY24 budget request for key conventional precision-guided munitions (PGMs) aligns with the 2022 National Defense Strategy’s (NDS) prioritization of the “pacing challenge” posed by China and the “acute threat” posed by Russia.

“Despite the progress that the FY24 budget makes in realizing the NDS by filling in critical gaps in the PGM portfolio, there remain significant shortfalls in stockpile depth and in industrial capacity,” the authors write. “The DoD’s inventory of key PGMs, especially standoff weapons, maritime strike PGMs, and air defense interceptors remains too small to blunt an initial invasion, let alone prevail in a protracted conflict against China. Additionally, while progress has been made rebuilding American stockpiles, it will take years to reach pre-2022 levels for several of the PGMs given to Ukraine.”

The authors note the importance of lessons learned from Ukraine, where stocks of preferred munitions rapidly dissipated, emphasizing the importance of maintaining significant stores of PGMS and other munitions and the necessity of strengthening the missiles-and-munitions industrial base through stabilizing initiatives like multiyear procurement.

The authors conclude their report with a series of recommendations for both the Department of Defense and Congress.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the lead researchers, please contact Alexa Whaley at awhaley@cnas.org.