February 07, 2014
#creativedisruption Survey 1 Results
Thanks to everyone who participated in our first survey. Here are some quick visualizations of the responses.
Our initial takeaway points from the survey are as follows:
1. Defense industry insiders, foreign policy professionals, and those in the private sector believe that change is coming to the defense industry. All predict large increases in spending on cyber and unmanned systems, at the expense of ground vehicles and manned aircraft.
2. Respondents believe that the center of gravity in the defense sector is shifting more towards commercial, rather than military, technologies. 71% of respondents think future innovation is more likely to come from underlying commercial technology than purely military research. They also think that more commercial companies are likely to move into the defense sector between now and 2030.
3. Respondents believed that Cyber and unmanned vehicles are likely to experience significant investment growth between now and 2030. That perception is supported by current investments in cyber, but not by current cuts to unmanned vehicle budgets.
4. The only place in the world where respondents are very confident that military R&D and acquisition budgets will increase is Asia. Respondents also view R&D and acquisition spending as likely to decline significantly in Europe.
5. The perceived changes to R&D and acquisition budgets in 2030 would still see the United States maintain a lead in overall spending.
6. Defense industry insiders had two main beliefs that differed from others:
A. Defense industry insiders think spending on ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will stay about the same between now and 2030, but those outside think it is more likely to increase.
B. Defense industry insiders are more likely to predict decreases in spending in manned aircraft between now and 2030.
7. While most people (87%) believe that military spending on software is likely to increase significantly, slightly less than half (48%) thought that about spending on hardware. People who believe spending on hardware is likely to increase are also more likely to think that future military capabilities will use more military than commercial technology.
8. While respondents expect Iran's arms exports to remain relatively modest, relatively, through 2030, these exports have had disproportionate strategic impact in the region.
Please share your own observations and conclusions in the comments or via #creativedisruption.
Look out for the second survey shortly!
More from CNAS
Can China’s Military Win the Tech War?
The United States and its allies should take seriously Beijing’s efforts to militarize China’s technological base....
By Anja Manuel & Kathleen Hicks
Transcript from Emerging Concepts in Joint Command and Control
On Wednesday, May 20, 2020, the CNAS Technology and National Security Program hosted a virtual panel discussion on emerging concepts in joint command and control featuring Hon...
By Robert O. Work, Chris Dougherty & Paul Scharre
What the government should or should not do to help space industry
The COVID-19 economic slowdown will have lasting implications on the new space sector. Yet the United States cannot afford another lost decade of commercial space innovation. ...
By Mikhail Grinberg
Time for the US to declare independence from China
Americans now know they can’t rely on China or even our allies to produce the goods we need during a pandemic. That’s why it’s time for the United States government to do what...
By Anthony Vinci & Dr. Nadia Schadlow