April 27, 2020
A Nightmare for For China: What Would Beijing Do if Kim Jong-un Dies?
A leadership transition in North Korea would present both tremendous risk and opportunity for all stakeholders in Northeast Asia, perhaps most acutely for China.
Beijing has long touted its role as a champion of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula while using its relative proximity to Pyongyang to systematically undercut Washington’s approach to North Korea. Even at the height of the United States’ “maximum pressure” campaign in 2017, for example, China cast North Korea a vital lifeline through facilitating illegal ship-to-ship transfers of coal, petroleum, and other commodities.
Beijing has long sought to exert control over a notoriously recalcitrant regime in Pyongyang to expand its clout and secure its sphere of influence in Northeast Asia. My colleagues and I examine in a recent CNAS report how exactly China is advancing these aims amid competition with the United States. A political shock in the form of a leadership transition in Pyongyang, while riddled with profound risks and unknowns for all countries in Northeast Asia and beyond, could also present itself as an opportunity for China to ensure that North Korea remains squarely within its orbit.
Read the full article in The National Interest.
More from CNAS
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security
What Will North Korean Cybercrime Look Like in 2022?North Korean hackers will likely continue to employ more phishing campaigns in the future while tailoring their level of obfuscation based on the target’s sophistication....
By Jason Bartlett
-
Duyeon Kim testifies before European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs
Congressional Testimony
Chairman McAllister, Vice Chairs, DKOR Chairman Mandl, and distinguished Members of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and the European Parliament, thank you for the opportunity...
By Dr. Duyeon Kim
-
China’s New Land Borders Law Is a Nightmare for North Korean Refugees
A combination of high-level pressure from foreign governments and steady support for grassroots refugee resettlement organizations and programs is the most practical way to as...
By Jason Bartlett
-
The Two Koreas’ Recent Arms Displays Are Sending Very Different Messages
Commentary
North Korea has announced that it successfully tested a new, smaller submarine-launched ballistic missile, or SLBM, on Tuesday. State media claimed the missile—launched from t...
By Dr. Duyeon Kim
