April 27, 2020
A Nightmare for For China: What Would Beijing Do if Kim Jong-un Dies?
A leadership transition in North Korea would present both tremendous risk and opportunity for all stakeholders in Northeast Asia, perhaps most acutely for China.
Beijing has long touted its role as a champion of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula while using its relative proximity to Pyongyang to systematically undercut Washington’s approach to North Korea. Even at the height of the United States’ “maximum pressure” campaign in 2017, for example, China cast North Korea a vital lifeline through facilitating illegal ship-to-ship transfers of coal, petroleum, and other commodities.
Beijing has long sought to exert control over a notoriously recalcitrant regime in Pyongyang to expand its clout and secure its sphere of influence in Northeast Asia. My colleagues and I examine in a recent CNAS report how exactly China is advancing these aims amid competition with the United States. A political shock in the form of a leadership transition in Pyongyang, while riddled with profound risks and unknowns for all countries in Northeast Asia and beyond, could also present itself as an opportunity for China to ensure that North Korea remains squarely within its orbit.
Read the full article in The National Interest.
More from CNAS
-
Decoding Kim Jong Un’s Latest Show of Strength
Podcast
Duyeon Kim joins WPR’s Elliot Waldman on the Trend Lines podcast this week to break down the multilayered messaging from the recent party congress and what to expect from Nort...
By Duyeon Kim
-
Sharper: North Korea
Commentary
For decades, North Korea's authoritarian dictatorship has threatened Northeast Asia's regional stability, challenged U.S. interests, and subjected its own citizens to an unpar...
By Kristine Lee, Joshua Fitt, Jason Bartlett, Chris Estep & Cole Stevens
-
After Biden’s election victory, what’s North Korea’s next move?
Commentary
Pyongyang may wait and see before reporting the result domestically and making its next move....
By Duyeon Kim
-
Renew, Elevate, Modernize: A Blueprint for a 21st-Century U.S.-ROK Alliance Strategy
Reports
The U.S.-South Korean alliance has the potential to play a central role in bolstering a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond....
By Kristine Lee, Joshua Fitt & Coby Goldberg
