June 18, 2025
America’s Middle East Trap is China’s Strategic Windfall
As another carrier strike group steams to the Middle East and F-35 squadrons position themselves in the region with tankers, the American people should think hard about whether President Donald Trump is allowing the Middle East to overshadow blinking red priorities in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing has systematically exploited America’s Middle East quagmires, turning each crisis into a strategic windfall. The Trump administration now faces a critical choice: de-escalate Middle East tensions or watch China continue capitalizing on Washington’s undisciplined policymaking.
China’s approach to any escalation in the Middle East reflects its broader strategy of free-riding on U.S. security commitments.
The symbolism of diverting military assets to the Middle East is not lost on Beijing or American allies in the Indo-Pacific. Among audiences where policy statements about freedom of navigation fall flat, U.S. force deployments speak volumes. The Biden and Trump administrations’ Red Sea campaign demonstrated costly strategic overextension for little discernible gain and contributed to a lack of cohesion between the United States and its European and Arab allies in the post-Oct. 7 crisis.
A U.S. destroyer in the Eastern Mediterranean, ostensibly conducting maritime security missions, may be viewed globally as the United States co-signing Israel’s devastating Gaza campaign. China has not missed these costs to America’s reputation and prestige. Beijing leverages each perceived misstep to advance its narrative that U.S. leadership is hypocritical, destabilizing, and declining — costs that multiply if the United States intervenes even in defense of vital national interests.
Read the full article on War on the Rocks.
More from CNAS
-
Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition
Commentary
The United States should prioritize these six countries in their foreign policy, encouraging swing state governments to choose policies that reflect the core principles of int...
By Richard Fontaine & Gibbs McKinley
-
The Pentagon’s AUKUS Review is an Opportunity — If Done Right
Commentary
The reality is that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and Taiwan has starkly highlighted for policymakers the real limits of the U.S. industrial base to meet demand across a...
By Jennifer Hendrixson White
-
Video
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security
75 Years Post-Korean War: Can Trust Be Rebuilt Under the New Administration?As President Lee Jae Myung begins his term, he's taking visible steps to reset the tone with North Korea: halting propaganda broadcasts and reemphasizing past military agreeme...
By Dr. Go Myong-Hyun
-
Reports
Indo-Pacific Security / Technology & National Security
Cyber Crossroads in the Indo-PacificThe Indo-Pacific faces a cyber crossroads. Down one path lies deeper military, intelligence, and economic ties between Washington and its key allies and partners in this strat...
By Vivek Chilukuri, Lisa Curtis, Janet Egan, Morgan Peirce, Elizabeth Whatcott & Nathaniel Schochet
