January 10, 2025

Battlefield Drones and the Accelerating Autonomous Arms Race in Ukraine

By: Samuel Bendett and David Kirichenko

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the war there has been impacted by attritable, cheap drones and rapidly growing roster of unmanned and robotic systems. Collectively, these technologies are redefining how military forces can wage modern warfare. With both sides in this war rushing to secure a technological advantage, the Ukrainian battlefield is transforming into a clash between conventional forces backed by a growing number of autonomous and remote-controlled systems. Both Ukraine and Russia have steadily poured more and more resources into developing this technology in a bid to stay a step ahead of the adversary.

Ukraine’s battlefield experience reflects a shift toward unmanned systems that augment or attempt to replace human operators in the most dangerous missions, and against an enemy willing to send more and more manpower into large-scale frontal assaults. After so many autonomous and robotic systems were fielded over the past three years by Kyiv’s forces, Ukrainian officials started to describe their country as a “war lab for the future”—highlighting for allies and partners that, because these technologies will have a significant impact on warfare going forward, the ongoing combat in Ukraine offers the best environment for continuous testing, evaluation, and refinement of such systems. Many companies across Europe and the United States have tested their drones and other systems in Ukraine. At this point in the conflict, these companies are striving to gain “battle-tested in Ukraine” credentials for their products.

With Russia determined to fight until Ukraine is conquered, and Ukraine resolute in defending its freedom, the technological arms race in this war continues to accelerate.

For example, US defense tech company Anduril recently started selling its new autonomous drones after successful tests carried out in Ukraine in October 2024. Ukrainian and Western drone manufacturers have started partnering more closely both on drones and on certain types of AI development. The US military is seeking to speed up the deployment of cheap autonomous systems through its Replicator program, and is also working closely with the private sector to test systems and technologies in Ukraine that can then be potentially used in future conflicts.

Recently, US Army Chief of Staff General Randy George noted that the Ukraine war “has demonstrated the value of small, attritable drones on the battlefield.” This combat application of relatively inexpensive platforms has provided the Pentagon with an opportunity to see how integrating cutting-edge software with scalable drone technology can proceed across the US Department of Defense, drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war as it prepares for potential future conflicts, including with China.

Read the full article on Modern War Institute.

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