June 18, 2020
How to Prevent a War in Asia
Amid all the uncertainty about the world that will follow the pandemic, one thing is almost sure to be true: tensions between the United States and China will be even sharper than they were before the coronavirus outbreak. The resurgence of U.S.-Chinese competition poses a host of challenges for policymakers—related to trade and economics, technology, global influence, and more—but none is more consequential than reducing the risk of war. Unfortunately, thanks to today’s uniquely dangerous mix of growing Chinese assertiveness and military strength and eroding U.S. deterrence, that risk is higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.
Neither Washington nor Beijing seeks a military conflict with the other. Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump both undoubtedly understand that a war would be disastrous. Yet the United States and China could all too easily stumble into conflict, sparked by a Chinese miscalculation of the United States’ willingness or capability to respond to provocations in disputed areas such as the South China Sea or to outright aggression against Taiwan or another U.S. security partner in the region.
Read the full article in Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Sharper: Maritime Security
Commentary
The importance of securing the maritime domain is rapidly increasing. From the South China Sea to the Red Sea, the U.S. and its allies are experiencing escalating challenges t...
By Anna Pederson & Charles Horn
-
Countering Coercion
Reports
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC or China) has been engaging in gray zone activity—coercive behavior that is aimed at changing the status quo but that is below a threshol...
By Lisa Curtis & Nilanthi Samaranayake
-
Deterring the Powerful Enemy
Congressional Testimony
It is a privilege to testify here on matters that are important to the vital national security interests of the United States, as well as those of our other allies and partner...
By Tom Shugart
-
Military Artificial Intelligence, the People’s Liberation Army, and U.S.-China Strategic Competition
Congressional Testimony
China sees AI playing a central role in advancing its military power. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping has set ambitious goals for the PLA to “basica...
By Jacob Stokes
