January 09, 2019
If Trump Wants to Get Out of Syria, He Should Strike a Deal With Russia
Making the Best of a Bad Idea
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American forces from Syria is a mistake. But if he insists on going ahead with it, the best option for the United States is to do what it can to ensure that Moscow—not Ankara or Tehran—ultimately replaces it and negotiates a political settlement that prevents a new conflict in eastern Syria. The two of us have long argued for greater U.S. engagement in Syria, so we find this approach unpleasant. But given Trump’s decision, it is the best way to avert further conflict, prevent the Islamic State (ISIS) from reemerging, and limit Iran’s influence in eastern Syria.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from eastern Syria has the potential to create a security vacuum in which ISIS could regenerate, especially if fighting flares up again. The United States will be abandoning its best local partner in the campaign against ISIS: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which U.S. commanders expected would stabilize eastern Syria after ISIS’ defeat. Iran will likely take the opportunity to shore up its supply lines across the Levant and reinforce the missile stockpiles it is building in western Syria. By walking away from a region that makes up nearly one-third of the country, including some of its most important electricity-producing resources and its most significant water, oil, and wheat reserves, the United States will be giving up its biggest piece of leverage in any negotiation over the final disposition of the country.
Even if Trump changes his mind, or slows down the withdrawal, the damage to the U.S. position in Syria will have been done. The various regional actors, including the United States’ closest Arab partners, are already behaving as though the Americans have left. Given this reality, the only remaining question is how to best protect U.S. interests.
Read the full article and more in Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Video
Middle East Security / Energy, Economics & Security
Trump Holding Off on New Iran Strikes After Gulf AppealPresident Donald Trump said he called off a strike on Iran after an appeal by the leaders of Persian Gulf allies, who called for more time to pursue a diplomatic resolution. C...
By Chris Kennedy
-
Podcast
Indo-Pacific Security / Middle East Security
The Global Power Shift No One Is Talking About – And Who’s Driving ItMost people see the world as the U.S. vs. China. But the real power shift is happening elsewhere. Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security and a former ...
By Richard Fontaine
-
Podcast
Indo-Pacific Security / Middle East Security
Why Trump’s Efforts to Force Iran to Concede to U.S. Demands Aren’t Working"So far, there has been no combination of carrots and sticks that has brought Iran to the terms that the Americans want. And if the idea is that, at some point soon, Iran will...
By Richard Fontaine
-
With War on Its Doorstep, Iraq Taps a Political Outsider to Become Prime Minister
Podcast
After a long political impasse, Ali al-Zaidi has been tapped to become Iraq’s new prime minister. A wealthy oligarch, al-Zaidi is seen as both a compromise candidate, but also...
By Hamzeh Hadad
