January 09, 2019
If Trump Wants to Get Out of Syria, He Should Strike a Deal With Russia
Making the Best of a Bad Idea
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American forces from Syria is a mistake. But if he insists on going ahead with it, the best option for the United States is to do what it can to ensure that Moscow—not Ankara or Tehran—ultimately replaces it and negotiates a political settlement that prevents a new conflict in eastern Syria. The two of us have long argued for greater U.S. engagement in Syria, so we find this approach unpleasant. But given Trump’s decision, it is the best way to avert further conflict, prevent the Islamic State (ISIS) from reemerging, and limit Iran’s influence in eastern Syria.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from eastern Syria has the potential to create a security vacuum in which ISIS could regenerate, especially if fighting flares up again. The United States will be abandoning its best local partner in the campaign against ISIS: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which U.S. commanders expected would stabilize eastern Syria after ISIS’ defeat. Iran will likely take the opportunity to shore up its supply lines across the Levant and reinforce the missile stockpiles it is building in western Syria. By walking away from a region that makes up nearly one-third of the country, including some of its most important electricity-producing resources and its most significant water, oil, and wheat reserves, the United States will be giving up its biggest piece of leverage in any negotiation over the final disposition of the country.
Even if Trump changes his mind, or slows down the withdrawal, the damage to the U.S. position in Syria will have been done. The various regional actors, including the United States’ closest Arab partners, are already behaving as though the Americans have left. Given this reality, the only remaining question is how to best protect U.S. interests.
Read the full article and more in Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Blaise Misztal and Jonathan Lord on U.S. Ceasefire Push in Israel-Hamas War
Blaise Misztal of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and Jonathan Lord from the Center for a New American Security talked about the new push by the U.S. for...
By Jonathan Lord
-
Congress Can Help Ukraine With Confiscated Iranian Weapons
Sending more Iranian weapons to Ukraine would be an effective complement to a larger aid effort at almost no additional cost to the U.S. taxpayer....
By Jonathan Lord & Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
Is Iraqi Federalism Under Threat
It is inevitable that Baghdad will get caught up in a contest between the KDP and PUK....
By Hamzeh Hadad
-
Biden weighs 'menu of options' for US response following deadly drone strike in Jordan
By Jonathan Lord