Image credit: Getty Images
September 04, 2023
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months
This article was originally published by War on the Rocks.
On June 4, Ukraine launched its long-awaited offensive. The operation has proven to be a test of Ukrainian determination and adaptation. Despite stiff resistance, Ukrainian forces have made steady gains in a set-piece battle against a heavily entrenched force. Ukraine’s main effort is a push from Orikhiv, with the goal of driving south past Tokmak and ideally reaching Melitopol. If successful, this would sever Russian lines along the Black Sea coast and endanger supply routes from Crimea. The second is at Velika Novosilka, a secondary offensive operation likely aimed at Berdyansk, also along the coast. The third is a supporting offensive along the flanks of Bakhmut further to the north. Ukraine has made gains here, pinning several Russian airborne units. The offensive is gaining momentum, and much remains undecided, but three months in offers an opportunity to take stock of the operation thus far.
Western support thus far has been sufficient to avert a Ukrainian defeat, and arguably has imposed a strategic defeat on Russia, but not enough to ensure a Ukrainian victory.
This has become a war of tree lines, with shifts in the line often counted in hundreds of meters. Artillery fire and drones dominate the battlefield, as small groups of infantry advance through dense minefields, field by field, tree line by tree line. Progress has been fitful and slower than expected, as acknowledged by President Volodymyr Zelensky and now former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. However, Ukraine’s recent gains illustrate that it has worn down Russian defenses over time, leveraging an advantage in fires and long-range precision weapons to steadily press Russian forces back from their defensive positions. That said, Ukraine will need to both break through Russian lines and exploit that success to reach its objectives. Much could be decided in the coming weeks.
Read the full article from War on the Rocks.
More from CNAS
-
Sharper: Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Commentary
With the slow progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive this summer, observers expressed increased uncertainty regarding the conflict’s trajectory. This lack of advancement c...
By Anna Pederson, Anna Avanesyan & Charles Horn
-
The New Authoritarian Axis: Russian Relations with North Korea and Iran
Podcast
This past Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to the Russian Far East for a summit with Vladimir Putin. After more than four hours of talks, Kim vowed to provi...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Hanna Notte & Markus Garlauskas
-
The Future of the Ukrainian Counter Offensive with Mike Kofman and Mark Hertling
Podcast
Over the past several months, the world’s attention has been focused on the ongoing counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. Many of Ukraine’s supporters had high hopes for thi...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Michael Kofman & Mark P. Hertling
-
A Post-Prigozhin Wagner Group with Kimberly Marten and Vanda Felbab-Brown
Podcast
Last week, the world learned the shocking news that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious head of Wagner private military company, died in a plane crash north of Moscow. Prigozhin’...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Kimberly Marten & Vanda Felbab-Brown
