December 18, 2024

Putin’s Point of No Return

How an Unchecked Russia Will Challenge the West

By: Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman

In a new article for Foreign Affairs magazine, authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman outline how to assess the magnitude of the danger and the effort required to contain Russia in the coming months and years.

Read the main takeaways of their article below.

The United States and Europe must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later. Russia is likely to walk away from the war (in Ukraine) emboldened and, once it has reconstituted its military capacity, spoiling for another fight to revise the security order in Europe. Because changes to defense spending, procurement, and force posture require significant lead times, Washington and its allies must think beyond the current war in Ukraine and start making investments now to prevent Russian opportunistic aggression later on.

Giving in to Russia’s demands will not make it any easier or cheaper to defend Europe—just look at the events of the past two decades. At every turn—the war in Georgia in 2008, Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and its deployment of troops to Syria in 2015—Putin has grown only more willing to take risks as he comes to believe that doing so pays off. The Kremlin will look to pocket any concessions from the West for ending the current war, such as sanctions relief, to strengthen its hand for the next one.

The U.S. has to set European security on the right path before it can fully and effectively focus on China. Washington undoubtedly has competing priorities that will shift its focus away from the Russian threat—China foremost among them. But to effectively address China, Washington must first set European security on the right path. The United States cannot simply hand off European security to a Europe that is not yet capable of managing the Russian threat. If Washington downsized its commitment to Europe prematurely, Moscow could take it as a sign of growing U.S. disinterest and use the opportunity to press ahead. The prioritization of U.S. policies is important, but so is the sequencing.

Read the full article from Foreign Affairs Magazine.

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