June 29, 2022
The Real Key to Victory in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding fight for yards. Ukrainian and Russian forces are shelling each other with medium- and long-range artillery, leaving the already battered villages and towns of the Donbas caught in the crossfire. Like the brutal battles of World War I, the current conflict has seen only small swaths of territory change hands, often being captured and recaptured from one week to the next. Although talk of a rapid victory for either side has largely disappeared from the headlines, analysts and officials still debate what piece of heavy military equipment or new technology might turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor. With Russia running low on supplies and manpower, for instance, retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges told The Washington Post last week that an influx of more sophisticated Western weaponry could allow the Ukrainians to turn back Russian advances and go on the counteroffensive.
This emerging war of attrition is more likely to come down to “sustainment”—the ability of each side to ensure a relentless influx of troops, ammunition, and heavy equipment to the frontlines in the east.
This emerging war of attrition, however, is more likely to come down to “sustainment”—the ability of each side to ensure a relentless influx of troops, ammunition, and heavy equipment to the frontlines in the east, especially as the conflict drags on and international attention dissipates. Logistics, financial management, personnel services, and health services will all be central to this effort, determining which side is better able to replace its depleted units, resupply and maintain its equipment, and source food, fuel, and ammunition. The Russian military is clearly showing signs of strain, especially when it comes to reinforcing its troops after heavy losses. But so are the Ukrainians, who in recent weeks have warned that they are running out of ammunition and losing as many as 200 soldiers per day.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
NATO Summit Preview with Julianne Smith and Camille Grand
Next week, on June 24th and 25th, NATO will hold its annual summit in the Hague. In the run-up to the event, expectations are low among allies. The ultimate goal is to navigat...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Julianne Smith & Camille Grand
-
How Nuclear War Could Start
To understand how it could all go wrong, it is useful to look at some examples of how it almost did....
By Jon B. Wolfsthal
-
How the U.S. and Europe are Rethinking China
China has remained a persistent—and increasingly complex—challenge. With looming discussions of tariffs and strategic decoupling from the U.S., European leaders are watching c...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Noah Barkin
-
‘Spider’s Web’ Warning: The U.S. Must Prioritize Drone Defense to Avoid Russia’s Fate
This attack is wake-up call for US military: its counter-drone efforts are inadequate and are not keeping pace with the threat....
By Stacie Pettyjohn & Molly Campbell