June 29, 2022
The Real Key to Victory in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding fight for yards. Ukrainian and Russian forces are shelling each other with medium- and long-range artillery, leaving the already battered villages and towns of the Donbas caught in the crossfire. Like the brutal battles of World War I, the current conflict has seen only small swaths of territory change hands, often being captured and recaptured from one week to the next. Although talk of a rapid victory for either side has largely disappeared from the headlines, analysts and officials still debate what piece of heavy military equipment or new technology might turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor. With Russia running low on supplies and manpower, for instance, retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges told The Washington Post last week that an influx of more sophisticated Western weaponry could allow the Ukrainians to turn back Russian advances and go on the counteroffensive.
This emerging war of attrition is more likely to come down to “sustainment”—the ability of each side to ensure a relentless influx of troops, ammunition, and heavy equipment to the frontlines in the east.
This emerging war of attrition, however, is more likely to come down to “sustainment”—the ability of each side to ensure a relentless influx of troops, ammunition, and heavy equipment to the frontlines in the east, especially as the conflict drags on and international attention dissipates. Logistics, financial management, personnel services, and health services will all be central to this effort, determining which side is better able to replace its depleted units, resupply and maintain its equipment, and source food, fuel, and ammunition. The Russian military is clearly showing signs of strain, especially when it comes to reinforcing its troops after heavy losses. But so are the Ukrainians, who in recent weeks have warned that they are running out of ammunition and losing as many as 200 soldiers per day.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Russian Influence on the Upcoming EU Elections
While the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s military operation in Ukraine over the past two years, Moscow has continued its attempts to use other, nonmilitary too...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, David Salvo & Brady Hills
-
The Role of AI in Russia’s Confrontation with the West
Executive Summary Russian thinking about artificial intelligence (AI) development is consistent with that of other major powers that are seeking to respond to an evolving comb...
By Samuel Bendett
-
Taking the Temperature of China’s Relationship with the United States and Europe
On Sunday, May 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping will begin his first trip to Europe in five years. On this trip, Xi will make a high-profile two-day visit to France, where he...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Bonnie Glaser & Noah Barkin
-
Turkey’s Democracy Is Down but Not Out
Turkey has a long way to go before it can be considered a liberal democratic country, but this election signals that there are pockets of resilience....
By Kate Johnston & Gibbs McKinley