September 19, 2018
Turkey's deal with Russia still leaves the US with a dilemma on its Syrian strategy
Turkey just scored a big win in Syria that could save tens of thousands of lives and avert what would have been the worst humanitarian crisis of an already terrible war, but the road ahead for the Turks in Syria is perilous.
On Monday Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a deal to establish a 15 to 20 kilometre demilitarised zone around the Greater Idlib region in northwest Syria. Monday’s deal, which Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu stated would prevent a new campaign against Greater Idlib by the Assad regime, makes Turkey the de facto sovereign with authority over Idlib’s three million residents, more than a million of whom have been displaced from other regions of Syria.
Mr Erdogan’s decision to stand his ground in Idlib has worked for now. US President Donald Trump deserves a lot of credit for stiffening his resolve. Mr Trump’s new Syria team, which has been on the job for just over a month, is seeking to build a common US-Turkish strategy that would prevent another refugee crisis engulfing Turkey, boost the Geneva process and diminish the power of Iran.
Idlib was the first test of this new strategy and although the final result will still be unknown for some time, the early indication is that Mr Trump’s team has got off to a new start. The question is – now what?
While the international community is still waiting for specific details concerning the Turkish-Russian deal, Mr Putin made it clear on Monday that he expects Turkey to use the reprieve from Bashar Al Assad’s war machine to remove Al Qaeda and other extremist organisations from Idlib.
Although this might not be widely accepted in Washington, Mr Putin expressed a sentiment that is completely in line with the US government’s understanding that Greater Idlib is “the largest Al Qaeda safe haven since 9/11”.
Read the Full Article at The National
More from CNAS
-
We Know Peace Plans—This Isn’t One of Them
Commentary
As two former members of the U.S. negotiating team on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we are deeply skeptical about the peace plan that U.S. President Donald Trump reportedl...
By Hady Amr & Ilan Goldenberg
-
Stories from the Backchannel: Season Two Trailer
Podcast
Now more than ever, Americans are interested in the people working behind the scenes on consequential national security decisions. In Season Two of Stories from the Backchanne...
By Ilan Goldenberg, Richard Fontaine, Susanna V. Blume, Kayla M. Williams, Price B. Floyd, Kurt Campbell & Kara Frederick
-
Sending Troops Back to the Middle East Won’t Stop Iran
Commentary
The Trump administration’s decision to kill Qassam Soleimani is the latest in an escalatory “maximum pressure” Iran strategy that is shifting American foreign policy attention...
By Chris Dougherty & Kaleigh Thomas
-
US Targeted Killing of Qassem Soleimani: Strategic Implications
Podcast
Brian Katulis and Kaleigh Thomas discuss the political and strategic fallout from the US targeted killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Listen to the full conversation...
By Kaleigh Thomas
