February 19, 2025
Ukraine Symposium – The Continuing Autonomous Arms Race
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags into a grueling war of attrition, both sides are intensifying efforts to achieve a battlefield breakthrough with technological innovation. The invasion has sparked a rapid proliferation of low-cost drones and robotic systems that have fundamentally reshaped modern warfare, increasing reliance on autonomous and remote-controlled technologies.
The conflict has evolved into a hybrid battlefield where unmanned systems increasingly support conventional forces, transforming the nature of combat. Ukrainian territory has become a testing ground for the future of warfare, where emerging technologies and tactics are rapidly shaping the conflicts of tomorrow. In 2023, Ukraine claimed it was already deploying autonomous drones without human oversight that hit Russian targets. In the words of Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian Army, “Undoubtedly, the last three years have been the most innovative period for remotely operated, semi-autonomous, and autonomous systems since they were first introduced during the Second World War.”
This war-powered technology race does not appear to be losing steam, and what happens on the battlefields of Ukraine can potentially define how belligerents use military autonomy in other armed conflicts.
The true cost of this war laboratory is often borne by civilians, who may suffer the most devastating consequences of relentless innovation on the battlefield. One of the biggest challenges for regulators in Ukraine and the West is developing autonomous systems that comply with international law while facing an enemy that operates without restrictions. Yet the pace of battlefield innovation is moving so quickly that regulators have a hard time legislating to keep up with the realities on the ground.
Drone Warfare in Ukraine
In a November 2023 interview with The Economist, Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, compared the battlefield to the great conflicts of a century ago. “Just like in the First World War, we have reached a level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he stated, emphasizing the challenges of modern attritional warfare. Zaluzhnyi concluded that breaking the deadlock would require a significant technological leap that also involved unmanned and robotic systems, admitting, “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
Read the full article on Lieber Institute.
More from CNAS
-
What a Stronger Europe Means for America
Podcast
A more capable Europe will also mean a more independent Europe, more willing to defy U.S. priorities and make demands for cooperation. Wallander has been a key player in the t...
By Celeste Wallander
-
Podcast
Transatlantic Security / Energy, Economics & Security
From Russia with RiskHere on the Bear Market Brief, a lot of what we focus on is, simply put, risk: what might happen, and what might it mean? On this episode, Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fel...
By Rachel Ziemba
-
The Future of Arms Control Part 2: The Case for Saving Global Arms Control
Podcast
This episode of Brussels Sprouts is the second part in our series on the future of the New START treaty and the viability of arms control between Russia and the United States....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
The Future of Arms Control Part 1: "No New START"
Podcast
On this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts, we’re kicking off a special 2-part series on the future of the New START treaty and the viability of arms control between Russia an...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
