August 03, 2023
Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition
In 2018, Kai-Fu Lee, a Beijing-based technologist, investor, and entrepreneur, predicted a geopolitical future shaped by American and Chinese dominance in artificial intelligence (AI): “[Y]ou might have some countries with no choice but to become a vassal state to the U.S. or China: You got my data, I will do what you want, and you help me feed the poor people.” The Economist characterized Lee’s vision this way: “The world will devolve into a neo-imperial order, in which, if they are to tap into vital applications, other countries will have to become vassal states of one of the AI superpowers.”
The current wave of global AI diffusion might prompt policymakers to revisit AI-impacting laws to ensure that they promote openness and collaboration.
Five years later, as large language models—LLMs—like Google’s PaLM 2 and OpenAI’s GPT-4 have begun to proliferate, AI competition has surfaced as a critical part of the broader tech rivalry between the United States and China. Though some analysts echo Lee’s binary view of AI rivalry, the global AI-competitive environment looks less dyadic than the picture he painted in 2018.
Read the full article and more from Lawfare.
More from CNAS
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Technology & National Security
Sharper: Securing Critical InfrastructureThe systems that keep global society running are increasingly in adversaries’ sights. From sabotage on the subsea cables that enable global connectivity to missile attacks on ...
By Charles Horn
-
CNAS Insights
Technology & National Security
CNAS Insights | A Closing Door on Open Weights? Implications for AI SovereigntyEarlier this month, Beijing announced draft export controls that signaled a potential shift in its longtime embrace of open-weight models. Foreign capitals and corporations sh...
By Vivek Chilukuri
-
Podcast
Technology & National Security
U.S. Military Forges Ahead on Autonomous WeaponryPaul Scharre joins All Things Considered to discuss the use of autonomous weapons in the U.S. military. Listen to the full interview on All Things Considered....
By Paul Scharre
-
Commentary
Technology & National Security
Explainer: How the Trump Administration is Aiming to ‘Modernize’ U.S. SanctionsTo successfully engage the private sector, civil society, and foreign governments, the administration needs to articulate its sanctions modernization efforts in greater detail...
By Alex Zerden
