August 03, 2023
Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition
In 2018, Kai-Fu Lee, a Beijing-based technologist, investor, and entrepreneur, predicted a geopolitical future shaped by American and Chinese dominance in artificial intelligence (AI): “[Y]ou might have some countries with no choice but to become a vassal state to the U.S. or China: You got my data, I will do what you want, and you help me feed the poor people.” The Economist characterized Lee’s vision this way: “The world will devolve into a neo-imperial order, in which, if they are to tap into vital applications, other countries will have to become vassal states of one of the AI superpowers.”
The current wave of global AI diffusion might prompt policymakers to revisit AI-impacting laws to ensure that they promote openness and collaboration.
Five years later, as large language models—LLMs—like Google’s PaLM 2 and OpenAI’s GPT-4 have begun to proliferate, AI competition has surfaced as a critical part of the broader tech rivalry between the United States and China. Though some analysts echo Lee’s binary view of AI rivalry, the global AI-competitive environment looks less dyadic than the picture he painted in 2018.
Read the full article and more from Lawfare.
More from CNAS
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Technology & National Security
Sharper: China's AI RiseArtificial intelligence has become a strategic priority for Beijing and Washington, yet both countries continue to pursue dramatically different strategies in their bid for gl...
By Charles Horn & Cadence Barker
-
Video
Technology & National Security
UN, Red Cross Call for Rules on Fully Autonomous WeaponsPaul Scharre, executive vice president at the Center for a New American Security, joins CNN to discuss the advent of fully autonomous weapons, the dangers of handing over targ...
By Paul Scharre
-
Commentary
Technology & National Security
Beneath the Surface: Overlooked Cyber Security ThreatsThis article was originally published in War on the Rocks. Cyber security remains a persistent concern for public and private sector organizations alike. Given the potential i...
By Caleb Withers
-
Commentary
Technology & National Security
Why Empowering Private Companies to Fight Cybercrime Had to HappenThere is no question that the government needs to adapt to the reality of the evolving civilianization of the security environment. It should do so boldly, quickly, but carefu...
By Gary Corn
