August 03, 2023
Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition
In 2018, Kai-Fu Lee, a Beijing-based technologist, investor, and entrepreneur, predicted a geopolitical future shaped by American and Chinese dominance in artificial intelligence (AI): “[Y]ou might have some countries with no choice but to become a vassal state to the U.S. or China: You got my data, I will do what you want, and you help me feed the poor people.” The Economist characterized Lee’s vision this way: “The world will devolve into a neo-imperial order, in which, if they are to tap into vital applications, other countries will have to become vassal states of one of the AI superpowers.”
The current wave of global AI diffusion might prompt policymakers to revisit AI-impacting laws to ensure that they promote openness and collaboration.
Five years later, as large language models—LLMs—like Google’s PaLM 2 and OpenAI’s GPT-4 have begun to proliferate, AI competition has surfaced as a critical part of the broader tech rivalry between the United States and China. Though some analysts echo Lee’s binary view of AI rivalry, the global AI-competitive environment looks less dyadic than the picture he painted in 2018.
Read the full article and more from Lawfare.
More from CNAS
-
Shaping the World’s AI Future: How the U.S. and China Compete to Promote Their Digital Visions
Commentary
As the United States navigates evolving global AI competition, balancing these elements will be crucial in determining whose AI systems — and by extension, whose approaches, v...
By Keegan McBride
-
Countering the Digital Silk Road: Brazil
Reports
Project Overview This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Digital Silk Road (DSR), China’s ambitious initiative to shape critical digital infrastructure around the world to...
By Ruby Scanlon & Bill Drexel
-
Promethean Rivalry
Reports
Executive Summary Just as nuclear weapons revolutionized 20th-century geopolitics, artificial intelligence (AI) is primed to transform 21st-century power dynamics—with world l...
By Bill Drexel
-
Trump’s Crackdown on Foreign Students Is a Gift to China
Commentary
When top global talent no longer sees America as a stable, long-term bet — in light of both visa and research funding insecurity — many will vote with their feet....
By Jordan Schneider
