January 07, 2020
War with Iran is still less likely than you think
In the wake of the U.S. attack that killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force, many are concerned yet again about the potential for escalation between the United States and Iran to a general war.
In June, after tensions spiked following attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman that the United States blamed on Iran, we laid out the case for why the two countries were unlikely to fight a general war. We drew on similar arguments in 2018, when we explained why war between the United States and North Korea was unlikely despite the fears of many analysts at the time.
The killing of Soleimani was different
The U.S. killing of Soleimani, an attack on a high-ranking government official, is different from previous moments of international tension during the Trump administration. Soleimani was an important military officer in a sovereign state, rather than the leader of a stateless terrorist organization, like Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In last summer’s oil tanker and drone-downing episodes, the stakes were lower, and there were elements of deniability or ambiguity that were not feasible in the case of killing Soleimani.
Read the full article in The Washington Post.
More from CNAS
-
Biden Urges Israel Not to Attack Iran Nuclear Sites
Video
Rachel Ziemba joins Bloomberg Television to discuss oil rising for a third day as traders watch for supply risks in the Middle East. Watch the full episode from Bloomberg Tel...
By Rachel Ziemba
-
The Axis of Upheaval
Commentary
The West has been too quick to dismiss the coordination among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Richard Fontaine
-
Proxy battles: Iraq, Iran, and the turmoil in the Middle East
Commentary
Since Hamas’s attacks sparked the war in Gaza on 7 October 2023, a dangerous cycle of escalation has played out across the Middle East. Iran and its proxies – such as the Hout...
By Hamzeh Hadad
-
What Comes Next for the U.S. in the Middle East
Video
Following a fatal attack on U.S. troops in Jordan, Jonathan Lord analyzes what comes next for the U.S. Watch the full interview with NBC News....
By Jonathan Lord
