March 05, 2024
What NATO allies must do to prepare for Russian aggression
The U.S. has long framed the invasion of Ukraine as a strategic failure for Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared it as such in June 2023, saying: “Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been a strategic failure, greatly diminishing Russia’s power, its interests, and its influence for years to come.”
And yet, in the last two months, a growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia against countries along NATO’s eastern flank.
In order to fix all this, the U.S. and its allies need to build a shared understanding of the threat that opportunistic aggression poses to NATO.
The chief of Estonia’s intelligence service said in February: “Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so.” Meanwhile, the Danish and German defense ministers have similarly warned that Russia could attack NATO in less than a decade.
The critical question now is: Does Russia pose a credible threat to NATO?
Currently, there are numerous factors working to dissuade Russia from challenging NATO, but there’s one scenario that stands out as a plausible pathway to conflict — and that’s if the Kremlin comes to underestimate Western, and most importantly U.S., resolve to fight under certain conditions.
Read the full article from POLITICO Europe.
More from CNAS
-
Friends with Benefits: How Russia’s Opportunistic Partnerships Stymie Nonproliferation Efforts
Commentary
To respond to Russia’s increasing disregard for the nonproliferation regime, the United States and its allies must raise the costs of violation....
By Nicholas Lokker
-
Can Ukraine and Europe Win Alone? with Gustav Gressel and Franz-Stefan Gady
Podcast
The Trump administration began negotiations with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia last week, and its exclusion of both Kyiv and its European backers from the table cast doubt...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
‘The Trump Administration Is Doing a Lot of Putin’s Work for Him,’ Says Former CIA Analyst
Video
Bianna Golodryga speaks to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, about talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia.Watch the full...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy
Congressional Testimony
As defense cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea grows, it will enable these countries to offset vulnerabilities relative to the United States....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
