March 05, 2024
What NATO allies must do to prepare for Russian aggression
The U.S. has long framed the invasion of Ukraine as a strategic failure for Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared it as such in June 2023, saying: “Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been a strategic failure, greatly diminishing Russia’s power, its interests, and its influence for years to come.”
And yet, in the last two months, a growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia against countries along NATO’s eastern flank.
In order to fix all this, the U.S. and its allies need to build a shared understanding of the threat that opportunistic aggression poses to NATO.
The chief of Estonia’s intelligence service said in February: “Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so.” Meanwhile, the Danish and German defense ministers have similarly warned that Russia could attack NATO in less than a decade.
The critical question now is: Does Russia pose a credible threat to NATO?
Currently, there are numerous factors working to dissuade Russia from challenging NATO, but there’s one scenario that stands out as a plausible pathway to conflict — and that’s if the Kremlin comes to underestimate Western, and most importantly U.S., resolve to fight under certain conditions.
Read the full article from POLITICO Europe.
More from CNAS
-
The Axis of Upheaval
The West has been too quick to dismiss the coordination among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Richard Fontaine
-
The State of the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman
As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the mood has become increasingly dark. While territorial changes continue to be minor, Russia’s slow but steady advances a...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend & Michael Kofman
-
Putin’s Fifth Term and Russian Domestic Politics
This past weekend, Russians went to the polls for the country’s presidential election. To the surprise of no one, Vladimir Putin emerged victorious with a record-high 87 perce...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Dr. Angela Stent & Joshua Yaffa
-
Ukrainians Are Resilient—But They Still Need Washington
Beyond material support, my visit made clear that the psychological effect of global solidarity, especially from the United States, remains vital...
By Richard Fontaine