May 28, 2014
When 9,800 Doesn't Equal 9,800
News coverage of President Obama's speech at West Point Wednesday focused on one seemingly hard and fast statement: The United States will keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan next year, ensuring that the nation's longest war continues a little longer. The 9,800 troop figure has been repeated so often, and in so many places, that it actually obscures a key point: An invisible army of American diplomats, intelligence personnel, civilian government officials, and contractors will remain in Afghanistan well in the future, likely outnumbering the 9,800 troops that will be there next year and the smaller numbers of troops that will be there in the years to come.
The size, scope, composition, and duration of that civilian mission to Afghanistan will hinge on the way the Obama administration answers four questions: (1) what does Washington plan to do in Afghanistan; (2) how will the White House divide those missions among military, civilian, and contractor personnel; (3) what level of risk should the United States be willing to accept for our missions and our personnel; and (4) how much will Washington rely on allies, both Afghan and international, to shoulder the burden going forward. Depending on how the administration answers those questions, and what mixture of civilians and contractors it chooses to field, the U.S. civilian presence in Afghanistan could grow to be two or three times as large as the military mission there -- or more.
More from CNAS
-
National Security Human Capital Program
Could the U.S. Bring Back the Draft?In this episode of At the Boundary, GNSI’s Dr. Guido Rossi sits down with Katherine Kuzminski, Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), to explore...
By Katherine L. Kuzminski
-
Defense / National Security Human Capital Program / Technology & National Security
Episode 7: The Future Hands Shaping the U.S.’s Unmanned ArsenalHow is the U.S. responding to unmanned innovation across the globe? This episode with Paul Scharre, executive vice president, Stacie Pettyjohn, program director and senior fel...
By Stacie Pettyjohn, Paul Scharre & Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan
-
Defense / National Security Human Capital Program / Transatlantic Security / Technology & National Security
Sharper: America’s EdgeA volatile global security environment requires the United States and its allies to develop new tactics and capabilities to deal with novel global threats. On June 3, policyma...
By Charles Horn
-
National Security Human Capital Program
National Security Has a Human Capital Problem and There’s No Fast Way OutNational security doesn’t really exist without the military forces and supporting civilians to carry it out. Recruitment remains a problem for the armed forces. And there’s a ...
By Katherine L. Kuzminski