April 13, 2017

Why a Limited Strike on North Korea Could Escalate

As North Korea warns foreigners to evacuate Seoul, the Trump administration is threatening to hit North Korea the way it hit Syria earlier this month. While the United States should be tougher with Pyongyang, treating Kim Jong-un the same way it dealt with Bashar al-Assad could be a catastrophic miscalculation.

This assertion is not based on North Korean propaganda. Pyongyang’s latest dire broadcast is not so different from past taunts emanating from Pyongyang. But there could be a misstep this time, especially if the United States fails to calculate the risk of how North Korea might respond to certain types of punishment.

This judgment is inspired by the thoughtful insights of Professor Zachary Shore, a historian at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, whose 2014 book, A Sense of the Enemyadmonishes analysts not just to look for patterns but for possible pattern breaks.

Read the full article at The National Interest.

  • Podcast
    • February 13, 2025
    Averting AI Armageddon with Colin Kahl and Jacob Stokes

    In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile, tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualita...

    By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Colin H. Kahl & Jacob Stokes

  • Reports
    • February 13, 2025
    Averting AI Armageddon

    In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitat...

    By Jacob Stokes, Colin H. Kahl, Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Nicholas Lokker

  • Podcast
    • February 4, 2025
    How Long Will Deterrence Hold?

    Mike hosts Michèle Flournoy, former Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where she currently serves as Chair of the Board o...

    By Michèle Flournoy

  • Video
    • January 22, 2025
    Trump’s Second Term: How Will the New Administration Reorder U.S. Foreign Policy?

    The return of President Donald Trump to the White House represents a significant moment for both US foreign policy and geopolitics. Following Trump’s comprehensive election wi...

    By Lisa Curtis

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia