April 13, 2017
Why a Limited Strike on North Korea Could Escalate
As North Korea warns foreigners to evacuate Seoul, the Trump administration is threatening to hit North Korea the way it hit Syria earlier this month. While the United States should be tougher with Pyongyang, treating Kim Jong-un the same way it dealt with Bashar al-Assad could be a catastrophic miscalculation.
This assertion is not based on North Korean propaganda. Pyongyang’s latest dire broadcast is not so different from past taunts emanating from Pyongyang. But there could be a misstep this time, especially if the United States fails to calculate the risk of how North Korea might respond to certain types of punishment.
This judgment is inspired by the thoughtful insights of Professor Zachary Shore, a historian at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, whose 2014 book, A Sense of the Enemy, admonishes analysts not just to look for patterns but for possible pattern breaks.
Read the full article at The National Interest.
More from CNAS
-
How China Could Use U.S. Farmland to Attack America
Video
Chinese entities have been acquiring land in key locations near U.S. military bases, sparking national security concerns about possible spying — or even a potential attack. Fo...
By David Feith
-
Japan’s Iron Lady: A Prime Minister for the Trump Era?
Commentary
This article was originally published in The Diplomat. A protégé of Abe Shinzo, newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Takaichi Sanae inherits her mentor’s approach...
By Ryan Claffey
-
CNAS Insights | Mr. President, You Are Losing India
Commentary
Last month, after Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi clasped hands in Tianjin, China, President Donald Trump concluded that the United States had “lost India and Ru...
By Lisa Curtis & Richard Fontaine
-
N. Korea Hardens Nuclear Stance at UN, Hints at Selective Diplomacy
Video
Seven years after disappearing from the UN’s main stage, North Korea returned — and made sure the world listened. Vice Minister Kim Son-kyong stood before the General Assembly...
By Dr. Go Myong-Hyun
