March 17, 2022
Why Putin Probably Won’t Give Up Anytime Soon
We’re now three weeks into Russia’s war with Ukraine. As casualties and destruction mount, many are left wondering how it might end.
Anticipating the war’s trajectory is difficult, not least because decisions about its future reside almost entirely with one man: Russian President Vladimir Putin. With no one in the Russian system to check or constrain him, Russian policy and Putin’s whims are one in the same. This is the reality with personalist authoritarians like Putin: The only thing predictable about them is their unpredictability.
Putin’s own penchant for risk and the patterns evident in other authoritarian regimes suggest that doubling down to secure his maximalist aims in Ukraine is the more likely outcome
Just as Putin’s decision to wage war surprised many, so too will his decisions in the days and weeks to come. It is possible that amid rising discontent with a war showing limited gains on the battlefield, Putin will lessen his demands to facilitate an end to the destruction. Because there is no politburo or political party to navigate or any coherent ideology to conform to, Putin has the latitude to change course.
The Kremlin’s control over Russia’s information space, which has only grown since the war began, means Putin could sell a settlement to his public. Putin has said he seeks to ensure Ukraine’s neutrality and demilitarization, acceptance of Russian control over Crimea, and independence for the regions in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region. Putin already appears to have moved away from his objective of regime change in Kyiv and could move to accept creative solutions on issues like demilitarization.
Read the full article from Foreign Policy.
More from CNAS
-
‘The U.S. Has Got to Get Involved’: Townsend on NATO Boosting Polish Air Defences
Video
Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, discusses what actions NATO countries need to take amidst Russia’s incursions of NATO airspace.W...
By Jim Townsend
-
Commentary
Defense / Transatlantic Security
Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter RussiaToday’s European leaders are in a Singapore trap, crafting a training mission designed to signal resolve rather than achieve an actual military objective....
By Franz-Stefan Gady
-
The Wrong Way to Do Diplomacy With Russia
Commentary
In fact, the summit helped Putin legitimize Moscow’s grievances, giving Russians who might doubt the wisdom of the invasion reason believe that it was, as Putin promised, just...
By Celeste Wallander
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security
A Project for a New World OrderIndeed, the gathering in Beijing suggests that the axis, rather than withering following the war in Iran in June, has momentum....
By Richard Fontaine & Andrea Kendall-Taylor
