If reelected, I am skeptical about whether Donald Trump will pursue military action against North Korea unless all hopes of reengagement are extinguished. If Kim Jong-un continues to isolate himself from U.S. leadership, Trump may resort to more drastic measures for rapprochement including the removal of U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula and an indefinite freeze of U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises.
If Kim Jong-un continues to isolate himself from U.S. leadership, Trump may resort to more drastic measures for rapprochement.
In fact, a former chief of staff to President Trump suggested that if reelected, the United States and North Korea will strike a deal with unspecified “incremental concession” towards denuclearization. North Korea’s harsh critique of the “Libya Model” for denuclearization suggests that the rogue state will voluntarily abandon its nuclear ambitions only if the leadership feels immutably confident in its ability to maintain sovereignty without nuclear weapons. Alternatively, Pyongyang may give them up if convinced that pursuing nuclear weapons will undoubtedly threaten its survival.
Read the full article in The National Interest.
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