June 13, 2016
Flashpoints, Escalation, and A2/AD
In this paper, CNAS Senior Fellow Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper examines three prominent escalation scenarios in the Asia-Pacific in the context of China’s developing area-denial/anti-access capability: a seizure of the Southwest Island Chain in the East China Sea; a seizure of the Spratly Island features; and an outright invasion of Taiwan. Dr. Rapp-Hooper analyzes the differences between deliberate, inadvertent, and accidental escalations to advise policymakers on how to proscribe adversaries from achieving escalation dominance by exploiting asymmetric vulnerabilities. Dr. Rapp Hooper concludes that the best counter to deliberate and inadvertent escalations are tailored deterrence and clarified escalation thresholds respectively.
More from CNAS
-
Commentary
The Biden-Harris administration will confront a range of national security challenges from the moment it takes office....
By Chris Estep
-
Reports
In virtually every dimension of their relationship, cooperation between Beijing and Moscow has increased....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & David Shullman
-
Commentary
Uneven access to digital technology is magnifying societal inequities around the world....
By Kristen A. Cordell & Kristine Lee
-
Commentary
At a moment of bitter division in the United States, Australia has produced a ray of bipartisan sunshine in Washington....
By Richard Fontaine