US push to zero Iran oil exports may be more like 500,000 b/d: analysts

The Trump administration's push to bring Iranian crude exports to zero officially begins Thursday, but analysts believe Iran will continue to export roughly 500,000 b/d through the early summer as the US, perhaps unofficially, allows certain buyers to continue their imports.

"I expect that we'll see a fairly messy process over the next couple of weeks to two months where some countries will keep taking incoming [Iranian] tankers, but they'll be curtailing purchases," said Peter Harrell, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a former deputy assistant secretary with the State Department.

Last week, the US announced that Iran sanctions waivers, known as significant reduction exemptions, would expire May 2, forcing major buyers, including China and India, to choose between continued purchases of Iranian crude or sanctions from the US.

Read the full article and more in S&P Global Platts.