September 20, 2018
China and America May Be Forging a New Economic Order
“New U.S.-China Tariffs Raise Fears of an Economic Cold War,” proclaimed a Washington Post headline. The New York Times alleged that the United States and China were already “on the cusp” of such a “new Cold War.” Driving this hysteria was the Trump administration’s Monday announcement unveiling tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports, followed nearly immediately by a Chinese promise to retaliate. This back-and-forth has been ongoing since January, and a resolution does not seem anywhere close, if one’s even possible.
As the U.S.-China competition expands across multiple domains, there are even worries that trade tensions could, over the long term, make the prospect of a military confrontation between the two more likely. Which raises the urgent question: How does this end?
It’s perhaps simpler, and certainly more rhetorically arresting, to predict a new Cold War, resulting in a global economy split between two power centers. But the reality of where Washington and Beijing are most likely to arrive in the next decade is far more complex. The United States and China are forging a new, uncharted gray area—not quite the economic bifurcation that characterized the U.S.-Soviet relationship at the height of the Cold War, but far from the high degree of interdependence seen in the early-21st century. Broad U.S. support for a harder economic line on China, a complicated domestic political landscape within China, and both countries’ recognition of the need for a healthy diversification of their economic relations will likely mean a new kind of relationship for the United States and China—and, by extension, a potentially new backdrop for the order of our world.
Read the Full Article at The Atlantic
More from CNAS
-
Does the Quad Still Matter?
Commentary
Under the second Trump administration, some analysts have expressed growing pessimism about the group’s effectiveness, given the president’s apparent lack of interest in atten...
By Lisa Curtis
-
Thwarting Communications Blackout
Reports
Executive Summary Control over the physical means of transmitting information—the lifeblood of modern societies—has become a central area of contestation between Taiwan and th...
By Jacob Stokes & Ryan Claffey
-
Pakistan’s Growing Regional Role
Video
Pakistan’s regional role is expanding — but what does it mean for the Middle East, the United States, and the Indo-Pacific? In a new MBN Digital Salon, Jeffrey Gedmin discusse...
By Lisa Curtis
-
Japan’s Point of No Return
Commentary
But if Washington treats a stronger Japan as a true partner and keeps it firmly within its alliance system, American influence in Asia will be greater than ever....
By Daisuke Kawai
