September 20, 2018
China and America May Be Forging a New Economic Order
“New U.S.-China Tariffs Raise Fears of an Economic Cold War,” proclaimed a Washington Post headline. The New York Times alleged that the United States and China were already “on the cusp” of such a “new Cold War.” Driving this hysteria was the Trump administration’s Monday announcement unveiling tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports, followed nearly immediately by a Chinese promise to retaliate. This back-and-forth has been ongoing since January, and a resolution does not seem anywhere close, if one’s even possible.
As the U.S.-China competition expands across multiple domains, there are even worries that trade tensions could, over the long term, make the prospect of a military confrontation between the two more likely. Which raises the urgent question: How does this end?
It’s perhaps simpler, and certainly more rhetorically arresting, to predict a new Cold War, resulting in a global economy split between two power centers. But the reality of where Washington and Beijing are most likely to arrive in the next decade is far more complex. The United States and China are forging a new, uncharted gray area—not quite the economic bifurcation that characterized the U.S.-Soviet relationship at the height of the Cold War, but far from the high degree of interdependence seen in the early-21st century. Broad U.S. support for a harder economic line on China, a complicated domestic political landscape within China, and both countries’ recognition of the need for a healthy diversification of their economic relations will likely mean a new kind of relationship for the United States and China—and, by extension, a potentially new backdrop for the order of our world.
Read the Full Article at The Atlantic
More from CNAS
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security
Trump Unfriends Modi's India: Trump Frothing, India CalmFrom tariffs to tantrums-Trump's latest anti-India tirade stirs global concern. As Washington watches in disbelief, Shiv Aroor discusses what this "break-up" means for India-U...
By Daniel Silverberg
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security
A Project for a New World OrderIndeed, the gathering in Beijing suggests that the axis, rather than withering following the war in Iran in June, has momentum....
By Richard Fontaine & Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security
Xi, Putin, Kim Project United Front in ChinaRichard Fontaine, chief executive officer at the Center for a New American Security, joins BBC to discuss the Axis of Upheaval and the level of concern from the Trump administ...
By Richard Fontaine
-
How the U.S. Should Push the Quad-Plus to Protect Undersea Cables
Subsea sabotage marks a new era in gray zone warfare, and the United States and its partners have a narrow window to expose and confront this threat before it becomes the new ...
By Ryan Claffey