September 17, 2018
Competing Economic Futures for the Korean Peninsula
As Seoul presses ahead with rapprochement with Pyongyang amidst the third summit between President Moon Jae-in and Chairman Kim Jong-un this week, it is becoming apparent that the stakes of diplomacy with North Korea far transcend the scope of nuclear disarmament. Beyond the formidable challenge of implementing a verifiable denuclearization protocol, the United States must navigate a delicate balance between supporting inter-Korean peace processes where appropriate, while ensuring that Beijing does not co-opt Pyongyang’s economic future.
Every regional stakeholder is currently pursuing its variant of triangular diplomacy, playing one major power off of the other to advance its interests. South Korea is no exception. Both Seoul and Beijing see tremendous opportunity in the economic transformation of North Korea, and the Moon administration’s bold economic initiatives have facilitated a rare alignment of strategic interests between South Korea and China.
Moon’s so-called New Economic Map Initiative offers but one obvious point of synchronicity with Beijing’s priorities. This week’s inter-Korean summit will feature a renewed focus on operationalizing Moon’s vision of building a continuous economic community on the Korean Peninsula, including his stated goal of establishing railway links with North Korea by the year’s end, as key South Korean business leaders join the delegation. Some estimates indicate that Moon’s plan to build out railway links between the two Koreas could add more than 1 percentage point to South Korea’s annual gross domestic product and could also generate seven hundred thousand jobs within the next five years. Meanwhile, linking the inter-Korean railway system to the Chinese mainland would not only offer Beijing an eastward extension of its overland infrastructure initiative but would also ensure that Chinese companies are well-positioned to dominate the North Korean market.
Read the Full Article at The National Interest
More from CNAS
-
The Nonintervention Delusion
Commentary
Richard Fontaine addresses the most frequently expressed concerns about U.S. military interventions and concludes that the use of military force will remain a key component of...
By Richard Fontaine
-
Why Huawei Isn’t So Scary
Commentary
5G may have become a buzzword, but the notion that countries must rush to be first to deploy it is mistaken and reckless—and increases the odds of security breaches. There’s n...
By Elsa B. Kania & Lindsey R. Sheppard
-
Time for Congress to Establish a U.S. Digital Development Fund
Commentary
As impeachment deliberations roil Washington, Congress will be tempted to look inward and dial back on efforts to address the challenge China poses to American security, prosp...
By Daniel Kliman
-
Why the United States Needs a Digital Development Fund
Commentary
What the executive branch and Congress can do to counter China’s expanding digital footprint across the developing world....
By Daniel Kliman
