January 13, 2023
Decoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China
In October, the Biden administration announced sweeping export controls on semiconductors to China. Denying access to chips is necessary, the administration said, to keep them out of Chinese weapons and protect U.S. national security. The new policy is a mistake, however, and will harm U.S. security rather than defend it. In cutting off China’s access to advanced chips today, the United States is giving up its long-term leverage over Chinese artificial-intelligence development and accelerating China’s drive toward chip independence. Recent U.S. export controls are the latest step in “decoupling” U.S.-China technology ties, yet decoupling is not enough to secure U.S. interests in a long-term competition. A better approach would be to keep China dependent on U.S. technology, giving the United States the ability to deny China access to key technologies when necessary.
The ability to deny China access to advanced chips is a powerful advantage whose value is growing exponentially.
Recent U.S. export controls are a major escalation in the U.S.-China tech competition. In September, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced a change from the U.S. goal of being “only a couple of generations ahead” of China in key technologies to maintaining “as large of a lead as possible.” The Biden administration’s aggressive new semiconductor export controls put this principle into practice, aiming to stop Chinese chip development in its tracks. Yet key elements of the policy are likely to backfire.
Read the full article from Foreign Policy.
More from CNAS
-
Commentary
Technology & National Security
Dutch Export Controls Don’t Go Far Enough on ChinaControlling the machines that make chips matters more than controlling any specific chip....
By Michelle Nie
-
Commentary
Technology & National Security
China’s AI Is Spreading Fast. Here’s How to Stop the Security RisksThe first problem is not about China, but about AI as a technology: It is incredibly difficult to audit the global supply chain for AI software....
By Ryan Fedasiuk
-
Podcast
Technology & National Security
Anthropic, the Pentagon, and the Future of Autonomous WeaponsThe last big story right before the war in Iran started was the collapse in the relationship between the Pentagon and Anthropic, with the latter objecting to any potential use...
By Paul Scharre
-
Reports
Technology & National Security
Off TargetThe pace of progress in frontier artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities shows no sign of slowing. Frontier models offer transformative potential for national security—from ...
By Caleb Withers, Jay Kim & Ethan Chiu
