July 07, 2025

Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition

By: Richard Fontaine and Gibbs McKinley

This article was originally published on The Washington Quarterly.

Global politics today is more contested, confrontational, and uncertain than at any time since the end of the Cold War. China seeks domination in Asia and beyond, while Russia remains aggressively revisionist in Europe. Both are working with Iran and North Korea in an “axis of upheaval” to resist a Western-dominated world. Key US allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific are growing stronger and more unified, but each has doubts about the future—and America’s own trajectory. Policymakers in Washington today represent a mix of those who see the rules-based international order as key to US security, prosperity, and liberty, and others who argue that any such order exists only to enrich other countries at America’s expense.

The United States should prioritize these six countries in their foreign policy, encouraging swing state governments to choose policies that reflect the core principles of international order and working to deny advantages to the axis states.

Washington itself is pursuing a form of upheaval. In its early months in office,the current administration threatened to seize foreign territory, imposed trade barriers on the entire world simultaneously, downplayed the role of democracy and human rights, and hinted at accepting spheres of influence in Eurasia. But while the Trump administration is skeptical about the existing order, the axis countries are outright opposed to it. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea share the goal of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system, and they are increasingly active in the effort.1

Read the full article on The Washington Quarterly.

More from CNAS

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia