August 07, 2025
Sharper: The Axis of Upheaval
Despite some claims to the contrary, the axis of upheaval remains active: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea continue to deepen their ties. Russia and China are flexing their collective muscle, launching joint artillery and anti-submarine drills in the Sea of Japan just as President Trump counters Dmitry Medvedev’s inflammatory nuclear rhetoric by repositioning U.S. nuclear submarines. Meanwhile, Washington’s escalating economic pressure, including an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian imports due to its Russian oil purchases, is forcing key partners to make difficult decisions. CNAS experts are sharpening the conversation, providing critical analysis on how the axis’ alignment is testing U.S. alliances, and recommendations for overcoming it. Continue reading this edition of Sharper to learn more.
Features
Report | The Axis of Upheaval: Gauging the Growing Military Cooperation Among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a critical catalyst for cooperation among the axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nicholas Lokker write in their new report that defense ties amongst those countries continue to deepen, and have enabled continued Russian momentum in Ukraine and increased the military capabilities of each country to become a more formidable threat. The authors argue that policymakers can no longer afford to view these countries as discrete threats but instead must understand—and disrupt—the growing connections among them.Report | The China-Russia Entente in East Asia
This week, Chinese and Russian forces carried out joint exercises in the Sea of Japan as the two countries continue to draw closer together. Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping specific regional and functional areas remains understudied. This report from Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet seeks to address this gap by looking at how cooperation between China and Russia shapes East Asia.
Transatlantic Security
The Axis of Upheaval
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a critical catalyst for cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—what the authors call the “axis of upheaval....
Indo-Pacific Security
The China-Russia Entente in East Asia
Executive Summary Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping s...
Report | Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition
International politics is undergoing a period of rapid, significant change. China and Russia are working together more closely and alongside Iran and North Korea in opposition to what they view as a U.S.-dominated international order. In a report from Richard Fontaine and Gibbs McKinley, the authors identify four swing states that will help define global power: Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Türkiye. This report offers a multifaceted path for engaging with global swing states, aiming U.S. policy at a vision of world order favorable to American interests and values.
Brussels Sprouts | Russia, Ukraine, and the Global Order with Fiona Hill
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend sit down with Fiona Hill, one of the leading thinkers on Russia, foreign policy, and transatlantic affairs. The conversation takes place against a broader restructuring of U.S. foreign policy, even as threats spiral between the United States and Russia. In this conversation, Hill discusses the status of the war in Ukraine, cooperation between Russia and its allies, and more.
Global Swing States
Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition
International politics is undergoing a period of rapid, significant change. China and Russia are working together more closely and alongside Iran and North Korea...
Transatlantic Security
Russia, Ukraine, and the Global Order with Fiona Hill
Jim and Andrea sit down with Fiona Hill, one of the leading thinkers on Russia, U.S.-Russia relations, and transatlantic affairs. The conversation takes place against a dizzyi...
Commentary
Commentary from Jacob Stokes, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, and Kate Johnston
Indo-Pacific Security
How Big Will China’s Nuclear Arsenal Get?
China’s nuclear expansion is already feeding an arms race—a contest that is accelerating partly because the finish line remains unknown....
Transatlantic Security
How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe
Putin would assume that with a smaller U.S. presence in Europe, the West would be forced to favor de-escalation, creating an environment the Kremlin would view as exceptionall...
In the News
Analysis from Richard Fontaine, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Stacie Pettyjohn, Nicholas Lokker, and Duyeon Kim
Indo-Pacific Security
The Anti-U.S. Axis Isn’t Dead, Just Resting
June was a bad month for the theocrats in Tehran, what with all those Israeli and American bombs falling on them. It also seemed — at least superficially — to be a setback for...
Defense
How Trump’s Strike on Iran Might Affect China’s Calculus on Taiwan
President Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing U.S. embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China’s leaders ...
Indo-Pacific Security
American Bombs in Iran Also Reverberate in China and North Korea
President Donald Trump campaigned on keeping the United States out of foreign wars, but it didn’t take long to convince him to come to the direct aid of Israel, hitting Irania...
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