August 07, 2025

Sharper: The Axis of Upheaval

Despite some claims to the contrary, the axis of upheaval remains active: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea continue to deepen their ties. Russia and China are flexing their collective muscle, launching joint artillery and anti-submarine drills in the Sea of Japan just as President Trump counters Dmitry Medvedev’s inflammatory nuclear rhetoric by repositioning U.S. nuclear submarines. Meanwhile, Washington’s escalating economic pressure, including an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian imports due to its Russian oil purchases, is forcing key partners to make difficult decisions. CNAS experts are sharpening the conversation, providing critical analysis on how the axis’ alignment is testing U.S. alliances, and recommendations for overcoming it. Continue reading this edition of Sharper to learn more.

Features

Report | The Axis of Upheaval: Gauging the Growing Military Cooperation Among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a critical catalyst for cooperation among the axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nicholas Lokker write in their new report that defense ties amongst those countries continue to deepen, and have enabled continued Russian momentum in Ukraine and increased the military capabilities of each country to become a more formidable threat. The authors argue that policymakers can no longer afford to view these countries as discrete threats but instead must understand—and disrupt—the growing connections among them.

Report | The China-Russia Entente in East Asia

This week, Chinese and Russian forces carried out joint exercises in the Sea of Japan as the two countries continue to draw closer together. Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping specific regional and functional areas remains understudied. This report from Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet seeks to address this gap by looking at how cooperation between China and Russia shapes East Asia.

Transatlantic Security

The Axis of Upheaval

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a critical catalyst for cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—what the authors call the “axis of upheaval....

Indo-Pacific Security

The China-Russia Entente in East Asia

Executive Summary Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping s...

Report | Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition

International politics is undergoing a period of rapid, significant change. China and Russia are working together more closely and alongside Iran and North Korea in opposition to what they view as a U.S.-dominated international order. In a report from Richard Fontaine and Gibbs McKinley, the authors identify four swing states that will help define global power: Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Türkiye. This report offers a multifaceted path for engaging with global swing states, aiming U.S. policy at a vision of world order favorable to American interests and values.

Brussels Sprouts | Russia, Ukraine, and the Global Order with Fiona Hill

Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend sit down with Fiona Hill, one of the leading thinkers on Russia, foreign policy, and transatlantic affairs. The conversation takes place against a broader restructuring of U.S. foreign policy, even as threats spiral between the United States and Russia. In this conversation, Hill discusses the status of the war in Ukraine, cooperation between Russia and its allies, and more.

Global Swing States

Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition

International politics is undergoing a period of rapid, significant change. China and Russia are working together more closely and alongside Iran and North Korea...

Transatlantic Security

Russia, Ukraine, and the Global Order with Fiona Hill

Jim and Andrea sit down with Fiona Hill, one of the leading thinkers on Russia, U.S.-Russia relations, and transatlantic affairs. The conversation takes place against a dizzyi...

Commentary

Commentary from Jacob Stokes, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, and Kate Johnston

Indo-Pacific Security

How Big Will China’s Nuclear Arsenal Get?

China’s nuclear expansion is already feeding an arms race—a contest that is accelerating partly because the finish line remains unknown....

Transatlantic Security

How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe

Putin would assume that with a smaller U.S. presence in Europe, the West would be forced to favor de-escalation, creating an environment the Kremlin would view as exceptionall...

In the News

Analysis from Richard Fontaine, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Stacie Pettyjohn, Nicholas Lokker, and Duyeon Kim

Indo-Pacific Security

The Anti-U.S. Axis Isn’t Dead, Just Resting

June was a bad month for the theocrats in Tehran, what with all those Israeli and American bombs falling on them. It also seemed — at least superficially — to be a setback for...

Defense

How Trump’s Strike on Iran Might Affect China’s Calculus on Taiwan

President Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing U.S. embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China’s leaders ...

Indo-Pacific Security

American Bombs in Iran Also Reverberate in China and North Korea

President Donald Trump campaigned on keeping the United States out of foreign wars, but it didn’t take long to convince him to come to the direct aid of Israel, hitting Irania...

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