We don’t know exactly when this offensive will begin, and the people who do know have no incentive to tell us. But it’s likely to be sooner rather than later, perhaps in a matter of weeks. “Once you disable a logistics node, or a bridge or a high-speed avenue of approach, you have to capitalize on that within a certain amount of time,” Jeffrey Edmonds, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), told Grid.
It’s obvious why Kherson is a priority for the Ukrainians, but it’s less obvious that now is the best moment for an attack. “Attacks require either overwhelming force or surprise,” Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Grid. Ukraine won’t have surprise on its side; this article would not exist if it did. Ukrainian officials have told civilians in the area to evacuate, and they acknowledge that Russia has been bolstering its forces in Kherson in preparation for the counteroffensive, though the destruction of the bridges will make that more difficult. It’s also not clear that the Ukrainians can pull off overwhelming force.
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