New CNAS Report Argues Six “Global Swing States” Will Shape the New Great Power Competition

Washington, June 26, 2025 – As international politics undergoes rapid transformation and great power competition intensifies, a new report from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) identifies six “global swing states” that will disproportionately influence the future of the international system. The report, Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition, authored by CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine and researcher Gibbs McKinley, builds on Fontaine's influential 2012 concept for today’s geopolitical landscape.

The six countries identified—Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye—are characterized as “multi-aligned,” maintaining ties with the United States, Russia, and China, while declining to choose sides. These nations are determined to reform existing rules and institutions, and together they possess sufficient geopolitical weight to sway the future direction of the global order.

“The old playbook of simply pressuring countries to choose sides is obsolete,” said Richard Fontaine. “These six nations are charting their own course, and America’s success will depend on learning how to work with them rather than against their multi-aligned approach.”

The report identifies five concrete pillars of the international order that have benefited the United States: the territorial order protecting national sovereignty, the global trade order promoting open commerce, the financial order that is based on the U.S. dollar and facilitates investment, the nonproliferation order limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, and the human rights order that aims to preserve individual liberties.

The new report offers U.S. decision-makers both country-specific and cross-cutting policy recommendations. Key recommendations include:

• Establish minilateral groupings that include the global swing states, exploring areas including technology, critical minerals, defense industrial base cooperation, infrastructure, and maritime domain awareness;
• Define and address unfair commercial practices by state-owned enterprises, working with key swing states to address Chinese overcapacity and market distortions;
• Develop critical minerals partnerships, prioritizing sectoral trade deals in critical minerals with the swing states and encouraging Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa to join the Minerals Security Partnership;
• Empower the U.S. Congress by linking parliamentarians, encouraging congressional delegations to the six swing states, supporting fellowships that embed professionals from each country in U.S. congressional offices, and encouraging visits and exchanges with governors and mayors;
• Launch a program to immerse American officials in the politics and economics of each global swing state to address limited U.S. government expertise; and
• Catalyze academic partnerships by encouraging top-tier U.S. research universities to establish partnerships with leading academic institutions in global swing states.

The report warns that the core pillars of the international order are under threat and require active U.S. engagement to preserve them, despite doubts at home and abroad about their benefits. Success will require policymakers to prioritize and focus their approach on the key countries that may tip the balance of the international system.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the report's authors, please contact Alexa Whaley at [email protected].