May 16, 2018

Leaving the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Have Unintended Consequences

By Elizabeth Rosenberg

President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and reinstate all U.S. sanctions won’t deliver punishing economic pressure capable of forcing Iran to submit to Washington’s policy demands. Along with diplomatic furor and a blow to nuclear arms control, the move also comes with damning unintended economic consequences for the United States.

The new U.S. policy involves snapping back all the sanctions on Iran that were removed in 2016 under the deal. Primary among them are the sanctions on Iran’s central bank and on its oil trade, the engine of the country’s economy.

Administration officials are betting that foreign firms that have invested in Iran and buy its oil will abide by the sanctions. They will also fan out around the globe to try to pressure foreign countries into joining the United States with measures of their own. Presumably the White House thinking is that the Iranian regime, once backed up against the wall, will capitulate or crumble.

This scenario is unlikely. Not every foreign company, bank, or oil trader will be inclined to comply with U.S. sanctions, particularly if their own governments are frustrated with the U.S. re-imposition of sanctions. There is no multilateral interest now in targeting Iran with financial pressure and diplomatic isolation, unlike during the 2012 to 2015 period of most intensive global sanctions on Iran.


Read the Full Article at Foreign Policy

  • Commentary
    • Foreign Policy
    • January 14, 2020
    Trump Has Made Sanctions a Path to Strikes

    U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to kill the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani, the architect of Iran’s political and military influence in the Middle East, and the Irani...

    By Elizabeth Rosenberg & ​Neil Bhatiya

  • Commentary
    • Forbes
    • January 14, 2020
    Watch Out for Iranian Info Wars Funded By Crypto

    With tensions rising between Washington and Tehran in the wake of the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qasim Soleimani earlier this month, U.S. officials should expect more Ira...

    By Yaya J. Fanusie

  • Video
    • January 8, 2020
    Iran attacks U.S. troops in Iraq base

    Neil Bhatiya joins Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia by phone to discuss the latest developments in heightened tensions between the United States and Iran. Watch the full conversatio...

    By ​Neil Bhatiya

  • Commentary
    • Forbes
    • December 31, 2019
    How To Really Help Free North Koreans Through Crypto

    A few weeks ago, the FBI arrested an Alabama-born computer programmer for allegedly helping the North Korean regime evade U.S. sanctions through blockchain technology. Accordi...

    By Yaya J. Fanusie

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia