May 16, 2018
Leaving the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Have Unintended Consequences
President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and reinstate all U.S. sanctions won’t deliver punishing economic pressure capable of forcing Iran to submit to Washington’s policy demands. Along with diplomatic furor and a blow to nuclear arms control, the move also comes with damning unintended economic consequences for the United States.
The new U.S. policy involves snapping back all the sanctions on Iran that were removed in 2016 under the deal. Primary among them are the sanctions on Iran’s central bank and on its oil trade, the engine of the country’s economy.
Administration officials are betting that foreign firms that have invested in Iran and buy its oil will abide by the sanctions. They will also fan out around the globe to try to pressure foreign countries into joining the United States with measures of their own. Presumably the White House thinking is that the Iranian regime, once backed up against the wall, will capitulate or crumble.
This scenario is unlikely. Not every foreign company, bank, or oil trader will be inclined to comply with U.S. sanctions, particularly if their own governments are frustrated with the U.S. re-imposition of sanctions. There is no multilateral interest now in targeting Iran with financial pressure and diplomatic isolation, unlike during the 2012 to 2015 period of most intensive global sanctions on Iran.
Read the Full Article at Foreign Policy
More from CNAS
-
Richard Nephew on the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program
Richard Nephew, expert on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the long history of U.S. policy towards Iran, the role of sanctions in constra...
By Emily Kilcrease & Geoffrey Gertz
-
Energy, Economics & Security / Technology & National Security
Beyond Bans: Expanding the Policy Options for Tech-Security ThreatsStuck between a rock (the fact that banning all Chinese tech that poses a risk is expensive and impractical) and a hard place (the fact that many existing mitigation proposals...
By Geoffrey Gertz
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security
75 Years Post-Korean War: Can Trust Be Rebuilt Under the New Administration?As President Lee Jae Myung begins his term, he's taking visible steps to reset the tone with North Korea: halting propaganda broadcasts and reemphasizing past military agreeme...
By Dr. Go Myong-Hyun
-
Middle East Security / Energy, Economics & Security
Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz?The world has held a close eye on the Strait of Hormuz lately with Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. Nearly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil passes through the narrow wat...
By Rachel Ziemba