All of the sudden, the transition of power in Russia has begun. In his annual state of the nation speech on Jan. 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised many by proposing constitutional changes that would redistribute power within the Russian government, giving more authority to positions Putin might himself take over when his presidential term expires in 2024.
It’s not that the idea of tinkering with Russia’s highest law was so shocking. After all, it was widely expected that Putin would find a way to extend his time in power beyond 2024. Instead, it was the timing of his announcement—four years before he has to step down—that caught people off guard. Yet by making the announcement now, Putin is avoiding succession pressures that could have built up over the course of the next several years and possibly triggered protests. Already, elite infighting was intensifying as individuals jockeyed for influence amid the uncertainty over Putin’s future. Moreover, the public’s discontent with the Russian economy, which has grown in recent years, is unlikely to abate. It could even worsen given Russia’s stagnant economic outlook.
Read the full article in Foreign Policy.
More from CNAS
PodcastCrackdown Ahead of Duma Elections, with Russian Opposition Member Dmitry Gudkov and Maria Snegovaya
What does the Kremlin’s crackdown ahead of the recent Duma elections tell us about the current domestic political situation in Russia? Russian opposition leader Dmitri Gudkov ...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Dmitri Gudkov & Maria Snegovaya
CommentaryBrussels Should Follow Biden’s Lead in Engaging Russia
EU leaders should emulate Washington’s Russia strategy of balancing engagement with upholding core values....
By Nicholas Lokker
CommentaryZapad-2021: What to Expect From Russia’s Strategic Military Exercise
Major exercises are indeed a time for vigilance, and caution, but they also present opportunities for Western analysts and intelligence services....
By Michael Kofman
PodcastSamuel Bendett on AI Development in Russia
What is happening in Russia right now with regards to development of artificial intelligence? In today’s bingecast, Samuel Bendett and Robert J. Marks discuss Russian military...
By Samuel Bendett