November 28, 2025
Ukraine’s Catch-22 Moment
This article was originally published in the Financial Times.
In Joseph Heller’s wartime classic, Catch-22, the protagonist Yossarian seeks out the US army surgeon Doc Daneeka to understand why his comrade cannot be grounded despite his obvious unfitness to fly. The doctor explains a brutal paradox: anyone rational enough to want out of combat is, by that very rationality, sane enough to stay in. He “would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he would have to fly them.” Yossarian marvels, “That’s some catch, that Catch-22.”
When negotiating from a weakened position, a country often faces a tragic choice: fight on in hopes of a better deal or accept punishing losses now and risk internal turmoil.
Ukraine now faces its own Catch-22: Russia insists that Kyiv’s forces withdraw from all parts of Donetsk they currently hold, including the crucial strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which Russia has failed to seize despite nearly four years of intensive warfare.
Kyiv is sane to reject a plan demanding surrender without resistance — but by continuing to fight, the struggle risks becoming futile as the military outlook darkens, with risks including manpower shortages, equipment loss and Russian advances. If Ukraine continues resisting, worsening battlefield dynamics by 2026 could allow Russia to seize all of Donbas (or even more), eliminating a key obstacle to a ceasefire and leaving Ukraine with the same end result, just on worse terms.
Read the full article on the Financial Times.
More from CNAS
-
What’s Driving President Trump’s New Confidence in Ukraine’s War Effort
Podcast
President Trump dramatically declared on social media that he now believes that Ukraine can reclaim all its land from Russia, which he described as a paper tiger. From the Ova...
By Richard Fontaine
-
‘The U.S. Has Got to Get Involved’: Townsend on NATO Boosting Polish Air Defences
Video
Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, discusses what actions NATO countries need to take amidst Russia’s incursions of NATO airspace.W...
By Jim Townsend
-
Commentary
Defense / Transatlantic Security
Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter RussiaToday’s European leaders are in a Singapore trap, crafting a training mission designed to signal resolve rather than achieve an actual military objective....
By Franz-Stefan Gady
-
The Wrong Way to Do Diplomacy With Russia
Commentary
In fact, the summit helped Putin legitimize Moscow’s grievances, giving Russians who might doubt the wisdom of the invasion reason believe that it was, as Putin promised, just...
By Celeste Wallander
