September 19, 2018
Winning the LDP Election Won’t Win Shinzo Abe Constitutional Revision
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be facing off against his political opponent, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on September 20. Already, five of the seven intra-party factions of the LDP have endorsed Abe over Ishiba.
The support of the LDP members will practically guarantee his reelection as their party leader and, by extension, another term as Prime Minister due to the LDP’s significant majority in the Diet.
Despite this likely political victory, one of Abe’s top priorities for his upcoming term will almost certainly remain unfulfilled. Abe has long desired to revise the 1947 Japanese constitution in order to extend Japan’s military defense capabilities.
The threat of North Korea, despite its claim to denuclearize; China’s rising aggression; as well as the uncertainty of the United States-Japan security alliance under President Trump, are all strong reasons for Japan to take a stronger stance on national security.
However, the lack of public support and trust in Abe, from cronyism scandals, neo-nationalist ideology, and an unaccommodating 2020 deadline he set for the revision, will ultimately hinder Abe’s ability to advance such a divisive political initiative.
Abe is pushing for the revision of Article 9 of the constitution, which would officially recognize Japan’s Self Defense Force (SDF) as the country’s military. The proposal would first have to obtain a two-thirds supermajority in the Diet, and then a simple majority in a national referendum to become law.
Read the Full Article at the Global Security Review
More from CNAS
-
What Kind of Great Power Will India Be? | The Quad Power
This article was originally published on Foreign Affairs.As Tellis makes clear, India’s long-held strategy of promoting a multipolar world order has become counterproductive f...
By Lisa Curtis
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Middle East Security
Ep. 45 | Global Swing States and the New Great Power CompetitionWith the future of the global order hinging on the outcome of today’s great power competition, a group of multi-aligned states has emerged with a growing ability to influence ...
By Richard Fontaine
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Technology & National Security
America’s New Plan to Defeat China in the AI Race | Trump | Xi JinpingIn an exclusive HT Podcast video interview, Vivek Chilukuri of the Center for a New American Security gives insight into the rapidly evolving global race for artificial intell...
By Vivek Chilukuri
-
Indo-Pacific Security / Technology & National Security
What It Takes to Stop the Next Salt TyphoonThis article was originally published on Just Security.Nearly a year after U.S. agencies identified one of the most severe cyber breaches of U.S. telecommunications companies,...
By Morgan Peirce