September 19, 2018
Winning the LDP Election Won’t Win Shinzo Abe Constitutional Revision
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be facing off against his political opponent, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on September 20. Already, five of the seven intra-party factions of the LDP have endorsed Abe over Ishiba.
The support of the LDP members will practically guarantee his reelection as their party leader and, by extension, another term as Prime Minister due to the LDP’s significant majority in the Diet.
Despite this likely political victory, one of Abe’s top priorities for his upcoming term will almost certainly remain unfulfilled. Abe has long desired to revise the 1947 Japanese constitution in order to extend Japan’s military defense capabilities.
The threat of North Korea, despite its claim to denuclearize; China’s rising aggression; as well as the uncertainty of the United States-Japan security alliance under President Trump, are all strong reasons for Japan to take a stronger stance on national security.
However, the lack of public support and trust in Abe, from cronyism scandals, neo-nationalist ideology, and an unaccommodating 2020 deadline he set for the revision, will ultimately hinder Abe’s ability to advance such a divisive political initiative.
Abe is pushing for the revision of Article 9 of the constitution, which would officially recognize Japan’s Self Defense Force (SDF) as the country’s military. The proposal would first have to obtain a two-thirds supermajority in the Diet, and then a simple majority in a national referendum to become law.
Read the Full Article at the Global Security Review
More from CNAS
-
Japan Is Emerging as a Regional Security Power Broker
Commentary
While Japan’s re-emergence as a security partner in the Indo-Pacific may not be welcomed by its geopolitical antagonists, Tokyo’s multilateral approach to preserving the statu...
By Derek Grossman
-
China Presses a Weakness in America’s Tech Policy
Commentary
America’s semiconductor strategy now must confront not only who controls the factories, tools, and materials required to make chips, but also who controls the language those c...
By David Feith
-
CNAS Insights | Japan isn’t rearming. It’s adapting to a new era.
CNAS Insights
Japan’s defense posture is changing and changing fast. Military spending has increased sharply over the past four years. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are acquiring long-r...
By Richard Fontaine
-
Tale as Old as Time: Security, Strategy, and U.S.-ASEAN Statecraft
Video
Everyone wants the U.S. race car. Who's willing to wait for it? On this month's episode of Bottom Line with USABC, President & CEO Amb. Brian McFeeters sits down with Lindsey ...
By Lindsey Ford
