September 19, 2018
Winning the LDP Election Won’t Win Shinzo Abe Constitutional Revision
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be facing off against his political opponent, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on September 20. Already, five of the seven intra-party factions of the LDP have endorsed Abe over Ishiba.
The support of the LDP members will practically guarantee his reelection as their party leader and, by extension, another term as Prime Minister due to the LDP’s significant majority in the Diet.
Despite this likely political victory, one of Abe’s top priorities for his upcoming term will almost certainly remain unfulfilled. Abe has long desired to revise the 1947 Japanese constitution in order to extend Japan’s military defense capabilities.
The threat of North Korea, despite its claim to denuclearize; China’s rising aggression; as well as the uncertainty of the United States-Japan security alliance under President Trump, are all strong reasons for Japan to take a stronger stance on national security.
However, the lack of public support and trust in Abe, from cronyism scandals, neo-nationalist ideology, and an unaccommodating 2020 deadline he set for the revision, will ultimately hinder Abe’s ability to advance such a divisive political initiative.
Abe is pushing for the revision of Article 9 of the constitution, which would officially recognize Japan’s Self Defense Force (SDF) as the country’s military. The proposal would first have to obtain a two-thirds supermajority in the Diet, and then a simple majority in a national referendum to become law.
Read the Full Article at the Global Security Review
More from CNAS
-
South Korea-U.S. Launch Ulchi Drills as Kim Slams Exercise as “Hostile”
Video
With North Korea's growing alignment with Moscow, plus renewed great-power diplomacy following President Trump's latest call with President Putin, the Korean Peninsula is once...
By Dr. Go Myong-Hyun
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security
Can India Survive the Trade War?India has little choice but to try to soothe simmering trade tensions with the U.S. without abandoning its redlines, while carefully managing the implications of increased coo...
By Eleanor Hume & Kyle Rutter
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Technology & National Security
America Should Rent, Not Sell, AI Chips to ChinaSelling AI chips to China outright reduces America's AI lead for little benefit....
By Janet Egan & Lennart Heim
-
From Military Warnings to Global Maneuvers; Is North Korea Poised for a Strategic Shift?
Video
As Washington and Seoul prepare for a key summit, the North is tightening military ties with Russia, pledging thousands more personnel by year's end. To help break down what's...
By Dr. Go Myong-Hyun
