September 15, 2022
Time Is Running Out to Defend Taiwan
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it abundantly clear that “reunifying” Taiwan with mainland China is a legacy issue for him, something he intends to accomplish on his watch through political and economic means or, if necessary, through military force. Right now, he is preoccupied with the COVID-19 crisis, the slowing growth of the Chinese economy, and the upcoming 20th Party Congress, where he hopes to secure a third term as chair of the Chinese Communist Party.
The U.S. military’s most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s.
But once these immediate concerns are addressed, it is possible that sometime in the next five years Xi will consider taking Taiwan by force, either because nonmilitary efforts at reunification have fallen short or because he believes his chances of success will diminish if he waits and U.S. military capabilities grow.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
The Italian Elections, with Nathalie Tocci and Cecilia Sottilotta
Podcast
This past weekend, voters in Italy went to the polls for national parliamentary elections. As expected, the elections resulted in a victory for the alliance led by Giorgia Mel...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Nathalie Tocci & Cecilia Sottilotta
-
Sharper: NATO
Commentary
As the war in Ukraine pushes past the six-month mark, NATO stands at a critical juncture. In the face of renewed great-power competition in Europe, the alliance has proved to ...
By Anna Pederson & Michael Angeloni
-
Russia’s Great Transformational Failure
Commentary
While post-communist countries saw varying degrees of success, it is the failure to modernize along all three dimensions that distinguishes Russia....
By Maria Snegovaya
-
Future-Proofing Transatlantic Relations (II): Taking Advantage of the 2023 Window of Opportunity
Commentary
The time to lock in progress in the transatlantic relationship is now....
By Carisa Nietsche
